ODM at crossroads as coalition talks with UDA deepen
While ODM has pushed for structured seat-sharing arrangements, the issue was deferred, with leaders describing it as premature
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing mounting internal and strategic pressure as it weighs a potential pre-election pact with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), even as tensions over zoning, nominations and power-sharing threaten to fracture the party ahead of the 2027 General Election.
On Thursday, April 23, 2026, President William Ruto chaired a high-level consultative meeting at State House, Nairobi, with ODM leader Oburu Oginga, where both sides agreed to establish a Broad-Based Management Committee to coordinate cooperation between the two parties. The committee will include party leaders, selected Cabinet secretaries, and parliamentary leadership from both sides.
According to a joint statement, the body will synchronise legislative and executive agendas to improve governance delivery while also managing emerging political disputes.
The talks come amid rising friction within the emerging cooperation framework, particularly over electoral zoning and competition in ODM and UDA strongholds.
While ODM has pushed for structured seat-sharing arrangements, the issue was deferred, with leaders describing it as premature.
UDA chairperson Cecily Mbarire and ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga were tasked with overseeing ongoing consultations between the parties, signalling a cautious attempt to stabilise relations.
However, within ODM, divisions are sharpening. Party leader Oburu Oginga has strongly defended ODM’s independence, insisting the party cannot be “swallowed” by its larger partner.
“As ODM, we cannot be swallowed. It is too big. If you try to swallow ODM, your stomach will burst,” he said during a recent youth meeting in Nairobi.
ODM leaders including Minority Leader Junet Mohammed and Wanga have echoed calls for the party to maintain its electoral strength, with Wanga advocating a “five-piece” strategy to field candidates across all major elective positions.
Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho suggested the party was prepared for a rupture with UDA, warning: “Kama mbaya…”
Despite this tough rhetoric, analysts say ODM faces limited strategic options. A split with UDA could trigger internal instability, especially as factions emerge within the party over its direction.
One camp supports continued cooperation with the government, while another, led by figures such as Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, strongly opposes any formal alliance with UDA.
Further complicating matters is an emerging succession struggle following the death of former party leader Raila Odinga, with younger politicians such as Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna positioning themselves for greater influence.
ODM could also return to the Azimio la Umoja coalition or seek new alliances with other opposition figures, though both options carry political uncertainty.
An agreement with UDA, including possible concessions such as shared executive positions, remains on the table but is seen as politically sensitive within ODM, where fears persist of becoming a junior coalition partner.
