Killings rampant in informal settlements, not rising, study shows

An annual police report has dismissed the growing public fear over violent crime, indicating that there is no evidence on the surge of last murders.

A study on homicide cases by the National Crime Research Centre (NCRC) released last week indicates that there has been a challenge on the widespread public perception that homicides increased sharply during the year highlighting a troubling gap between official data and public confidence in crime-fighting institutions.

The NCRC study shows that while police records do not indicate a spike in killings, the belief among many Kenyans is that violence escalated.

“The study concludes that from the annual police statistics, there is no indication that there was a surge in the killings in 2024. However, whether there was an increase in homicides or not, the perception of most members of the public is that there was. This is a problem for the relevant agencies as perceptions are critical in determining whether people have confidence in the various measures and interventions to address crime,” NCRC stated.

At the heart of the issue is Kenya’s fragmented and outdated crime data system as the study points out that the National Police Service (NPS) only releases summary annual homicide statistics bare numbers that lack critical details such as victim profiles, suspects, investigation status, locations, or circumstances surrounding each death making it nearly impossible to establish clear trends, patterns, or hotspots.

At the heart of the issue is Kenya’s fragmented and outdated crime data system. According to the study, the National Police Service (NPS) only releases summary annual homicide statistics—bare numbers that lack critical details such as victim profiles, suspects, investigation status, locations, or circumstances surrounding each death. This makes it nearly impossible to establish clear trends, patterns, or hotspots.

This is further as the research points out that the problem is compounded by classification challenges with crimes such as manslaughter, for instance, cannot be definitively categorized until they reach the prosecution stage yet they are still included in annual homicide statistics, potentially distorting the figures and further weakening their reliability.

“The summary statistics are not well-suited for comprehensive analysis, comparison, planning or informed decision-making,” the study revealed.

Kenya’s inability to accurately track homicide trends persists despite the enactment of the National Coroners Service Act of 2017, which was meant to ensure professional investigations into sudden, unexplained, and unnatural deaths.

While the law provides a strong framework, the study notes that the Service has yet to be fully operational, leaving a critical gap in death investigations.

As a result, security analysts say Kenya lacks reliable long-term homicide data, making it impossible to conclusively determine whether 2024 was an unusually violent year or simply one marked by heightened public anxiety and media attention.

Although killings can occur anywhere, the study identifies clear geographic and social patterns.

In urban areas, homicides were overwhelmingly concentrated in informal settlements and poorer neighbourhoods. In Nairobi, 70 per cent of reported killings occurred in Eastlands, particularly in Starehe/Kamukunji, Kariobangi, Kayole, Mathare, Embakasi, Njiru and Kasarani. Similar patterns were observed in other major towns.

Land conflict emerged as a major driver of violence, both in rural and peri-urban areas. Disputes over inheritance, succession, boundaries, and contested land sales often escalated into deadly confrontations sometimes within families, sometimes between neighbours or business partners.

In border regions with long-standing inter-ethnic tensions, killings were linked to conflicts over grazing land, farming areas and natural resources. Areas such as the Narok–Kisii, Bomet–Kisii and Isiolo border zones were cited as hotspots, with cycles of retaliatory violence following earlier attacks.

A significant number of killings also occurred in private and domestic spaces. Homes, rental apartments, hotels and Airbnb; particularly in urban areas were frequent scenes of homicide, especially involving women and girls.

These deaths were often linked to domestic disputes, business disagreements and gender-based violence, and were frequently perpetrated by people known to the victims.

In public spaces, killings were reported in poorly lit streets, dark alleys and entertainment spots, often late at night. Some victims were attacked during robberies, gang activity, or following disputes in bars and nightclubs.

NCRC found that young men aged between 20 and 40 years accounted for the majority of homicide perpetrators.

In cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa, most suspects were in their 20s and 30s. Women accounted for about 10 per cent of perpetrators, mainly in cases linked to domestic violence, infanticide, relationship disputes, land conflicts and witchcraft accusations.

Crucially, most victims were killed by people they knew intimate partners, family members, neighbours, acquaintances or business associates. Stranger killings were the exception, not the rule.

Men were the primary victims in cases involving cattle rustling, communal violence, drunken altercations, land disputes and mob justice. Women, on the other hand, were disproportionately killed in domestic violence incidents, succession disputes, love triangles and crimes of passion.

In some regions, elderly women, especially those living alone were targeted over witchcraft suspicions, sometimes resulting in mob lynchings.

Women returning home from funeral vigils and disco matangas, particularly in areas such as Busia, were also identified as vulnerable.

Children were most often killed within the family context, frequently by parents, stepparents or close relatives. In some cases, children became collateral victims of conflicts between adults.

Rather than a single cause, the study points to intersecting drivers of homicide.

Unresolved family, community and business conflicts—particularly over land and resources—remain central. Economic stress, limited youth employment opportunities, and frustration among a large, underemployed youth population have pushed some young people into gangs and illicit economies linked to violence.

Mental health and psychosocial challenges also played a role. Individuals with poor anger control or untreated mental health conditions were more likely to resort to lethal violence, especially when combined with alcohol or drug abuse.

Cultural beliefs and harmful norms continue to fuel killings. Witchcraft accusations, patriarchal attitudes that reinforce male dominance, forced marriages and gender-based violence all featured prominently. In some cases, girls and women were killed for rejecting relationships or arranged marriages.

A growing culture of mob justice and vigilantism was also identified. Low trust in law enforcement has led communities to take the law into their own hands, resulting in lynchings of suspected thieves and alleged witches.

The study paints a troubling picture of Kenya’s criminal justice system. While police respond to homicide cases more seriously than other crimes, investigations are often undermined by limited resources, inadequate training, corruption and poor forensic capacity.

In some counties, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) reportedly operates with just one vehicle or camera. Shortages of forensic reagents and skilled personnel further delay investigations.

Public cooperation remains weak, driven by fear of retaliation, mistrust of police, limited witness protection and perceptions of corruption. This often leads to collapsed cases or unsolved murders.

Prosecutors face challenges building strong cases due to poor investigations, while courts struggle with massive backlogs. Homicide cases can take seven years or more to conclude, reinforcing the public perception that justice is slow or unavailable.

Despite the National Coroners Service Act of 2017, which was designed to ensure professional investigations of unnatural deaths, the service has yet to be fully operational. As a result, Kenya still lacks comprehensive, incident-based homicide data.

“Comprehensive data is the starting point for effective interventions to address the problem of homicides in Kenya,” NCRC pointed out.

Without detailed records spanning several years, policymakers and security agencies remain unable to design evidence-based strategies. The study recommends urgent reforms, including incident-based crime reporting, improved forensic capacity, operationalizing the Coroners Service, addressing cold cases, and rebuilding public trust in the justice system.