Raila’s ‘toxic’ jab on political pact with Ruto could send UDA back to drawing board
Sakaja has effectively closed ranks with ODM with indications of crossing over as he charts his political course into 2027 polls.
By Adieri Mulaa
Emerging political undertones after Raila Odinga’s terse pronouncement on the possibility of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party fielding a presidential candidate in 2027 carry deep-seated implications on the broad-based government.
It is a toxic jab on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that could send the President William Ruto’s led United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party under the Kenya Kwanza coalition back to the drawing board in the broad-based pact between Ruto and Raila, following the unprecedented Gen Z protests in June 2024.
The statement marked Raila’s first hard tackle on President Ruto since UDA signed broad-based government pact with ODM, hitherto an opposition party, on Friday, March 7, 2025 to cement a joint working relationship in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
At the same time, a recent survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research show that majority of Kenyans oppose the Ruto and Raila broad-based government deal saying it prioritises personal interests over the public good.
The poll shows that despite efforts to present the coalition as a unifying force, skepticism remains high among citizens across the country.
According to the findings, 37 per cent of respondents believe the BBG puts leaders’ personal gain ahead of public interest.
Another 27 per cent said they reject the arrangement because it undermines democracy and weakens the role of the opposition.
A further 17 per cent argued that the government is irrelevant to people’s daily needs and development priorities.
“We are ODM. Who told you that ODM will not have a candidate in 2027″, he posed questions to the party National Assembly legislators in a parliamentary group excursion in Machakos on September 22, 2025.
The meeting which was convened by Raila was also attended by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, one of the ‘ODM experts’ in President Ruto’s government and the party’s former national chairman.
That notwithstanding, UDA leadership in Nairobi county fell in limbo when the party National Elections Board (NEB) chairman Anthony Mwaura halted branch polls last year at the peak of political sour grapes between President Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
Since then, governor Johnson Sakaja who was among the contenders has effectively closed ranks with ODM, with clear indications of crossing over as he charts his political course into 2027 polls.
Thus, Waithaka Ward MCA Anthony Kiragu has taken charge as the de facto chairman of UDA Nairobi City County branch, after other contestants for the seat in the stalled party election shifted allegiance to other parties.
A drastic action that was taken by the Election Board at the tail end of grueling campaigns appears to have shuttered aspirations of the contenders for the position of UDA Nairobi County chairman.
The contenders included Embakasi North MP James Mwangi Gakuya. Gakuya, a long serving MP in Nairobi had presented as a leading aspirant in the race. He is a close political ally of former deputy president Gachagua.
Others were Waithaka Ward MCA Anthony Kiragu, who is the Leader of Minority in Nairobi City County Assembly, and former Nairobi Councilor, Badi Ali.
Under the unfolding political formations, Gakuya has ditched UDA to incline towards Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) that is fronted by Gachagua.
On the other hand, Sakaja has demonstrated his inclination towards ODM, to extends of sponsoring the party activities and forging close ties with Raila Odinga for political protection.
Badi exited UDA to become the national chairperson of Alliance for Real Change party. The party is headed by businessman and former Nairobi City councillor, Mr Shamsherali Mohamed Lalani, as the patron.
As Raila was preparing to leave Nairobi for Addis Ababa in his quest for the coveted African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson’s seat, he announced that he had left Nairobi in the hands Sakaja.
At a prayer service organised by Nairobi ODM women league on February 10, 2025 for Raila, which was reportedly sponsored by Sakaja, the governor acceded to requests by ODM top officials to join the party.
The requests were made by ODM national chairperson, Governor Gladys Wanga, and Nairobi branch chairman, who is Makadara MP George Aladwa.
Sakaja enthusiastically promised to consider joining the Orange party. ”Dalili ya mvua ni nini?…mwenye macho haambiwi?…na mwenye masikio haambiwi?, Sakaja posed questions to the audience in affirmative response to the persuasion for him to join ODM.
During the prayer meeting that was held at Bomas of Kenya, Raila also endorsed Sakaja to take charge of Nairobi affairs for the time he would be away, if elected chairperson of AUC. ”Nataka Nairobi ibaki imara. Huyu kijana yangu ashikiliye na afanye kazi sawa sawa” (I want my son Sakaja to take charge of Nairobi affairs and provide good leadership), the former Prime Minister told the congregation. When Members of Nairobi City County Assembly recently initiated a process to impeach Governor Sakaja, he sought quick intervention by the ODM leader.
In turn, Raila summoned the party MCAs to Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation (JOOF) for a meeting to forestall the impeachment.
At the meeting, Raila brokered a deal for the Orange party county legislators to suspend their impeachment process and accord Sakaja the opportunity to put his house in order and resolve their concerns as agreed upon.
However, President Ruto’s subsequent meeting with UDA MCAs at State House gave the impeachment issue a more solid impetus.
The State House meeting gave Governor Sakaja a 60-day relief to pull up his socks on the concerns raised by MCAs, if he has to escape the suspended impeachment process.
Kiragu said the delayed party branch elections had adversely impacted UDA activities in Nairobi which is a strong hold.
Accordingly, he has taken charge as the branch chairman to steer the party interests and activities in Nairobi as the new voter registration exercise which was launched by IBEC Chairman Eratus Edung Ethekon early this week takes place.
“I am the only chairman who is undisputed because all the other contestants went to other parties. One went to DCP and the other one has inclined towards ODM”, Kiragu told The Informer Media Group.
While addressing ODM members of National Assembly in Machakos, Raila told them to keenly look at the MoU that was signed with UDA and remain as ODM. ”We have signed and agreed that we will work together up to 2027.
We have not passed any resolution as a party to say how we are going into elections of 2027″, said Raila.
He cautioned that ODM must continue carrying its identify despite being in the broad-based government.
Raila made the surprise move on the eve of the House resumption from recess.
”So wherever you are, don’t commit the party (ODM) to some things which have not been discussed”, the party leader emphasized. Political observers in Nairobi argue that political developments over the past few months and the Gen Z protests had greatly weighed in on Sakaja’s initial popularity in Nairobi.
On Tuesday, September 30, 2025 the High Court declined to grant the governor an interim injunction restraining the media and journalists from publishing stories linking him to violence during the June 17, 2025 Gen-Z protests in Nairobi.
To those who see Raila through party politics, his statement could be a warning shot aimed at ODM and UDA legislators who were overly excited that his party was now an appendage of President Ruto’s re-election bid.
Nonetheless, since ODM joined the UDA administration, its stature has appeared to descend from an age-long formidable opposition political party.
