Concerns over decline of democracy in East Africa

There has been rising concern that democracy appears to be on the decline in East Africa, a region considered more stable than most regions in the African continent despite continued strife in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The recent arrest of lawyers and activists from Kenya and Uganda in Tanzania where they had gone to show solidarity with Chadema leader Tundu Lissu who is facing treason charges that are seen as a plot by President Samia Suluhu to stop him from vying in this year’s presidential election are the latest indicator of the steady decline in democratic norms and practices in the region.

As the State of Democracy in Africa report by the Africa Center notes, for the most part, authoritarian rule continues to thrive in East African countries with multiple systemic flaws in the structure and practice of democracy, and severe limitations to civil liberties, electoral processes and pluralism, government functions, and political participation

The BTI Transformation Index, for instance, characterises nine (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda) of the 10 East Africa countries it surveys for political transformation within its 2024 Regional Report for Southern and Eastern Africa, as autocracies, with the tenth, Kenya, characterised as a ‘highly defective democracy’ which “still faces many challenges, such as ethnic polarisation within the party system and entrenched patronage structures.”

“Dissent continues to be repressed across the region. In Kenya and Uganda, security forces crushed protests – with well documented use of lethal force in Kenya, where police used live rounds and other less lethal weapons against peaceful protesters, killing more than a hundred people and injuring hundreds more between 2023 and 2024. Anti-protest laws, cybercrimes laws, surveillance laws and more general legal provisions from, for example, the penal code or security laws that have been routinely used and weaponised to repress civic participation,” it says.

The June 25 crackdown on protestors who breached heavy security and stormed Parliament where MPs were passing the controversial Finance Bill 2024 was followed by enforced disappearance and abduction of Gen Z youths critical of President William Ruto’s government some of whom were found death.

President Ruto recently appeared to admit the involvement of State security agents, saying without evidence that those abducted were released back to their families and that no more abductions will take place.

“All the people who disappeared or were abducted have been brought back to their homes. I have given clarity that nothing of that nature will happen again,” he said during a joint press conference with visiting Finnish President Alexander Stubb last month.

In Burundi, the Penal Code provisions have been used to convict those who express criticism of the government of “threatening internal state security” and “rebellion”.

In July last year, South Sudan’s National Legislative Assembly voted in amendments to the law governing the National Security Service which will further undermine human rights and entrench the agency’s longstanding abuses, according to human rights watchdogs.

According to the report, the use of surveillance technology is another critical issue, with the use of mass surveillance technology and spyware by governments such as Rwanda representing massive invasion of privacy and responsible for a chilling effect on fundamental freedoms.

The Tanzanian and Ugandan governments have been accused of full or partial internet shutdowns during major national moments, such as election periods or major demonstrations, while many governments across the region also restrict access to critical websites such as independent media outlets.

“Notwithstanding, many hopes across the region hinge on the promise of regular elections to deliver democracy. This is despite rampant manipulation of constitutional provisions that guide the conduct of elections in several countries, and the dismal record and flawed nature of some elections in the region which are designed to circumvent popular will and deliver little challenge to victory for the incumbent. Recent elections in Djibouti, Rwanda and Uganda unsurprisingly confirmed their respective rulers’ grip on power,” says the report.

In July 2024, for instance, President Paul Kagame was declared winner in Rwanda’s presidential elections with over 99 per cent of the vote. Nevertheless, the vote is one of the ways in which citizens exercise the right to political participation, and many people across the region have regularly sought to exercise this right and in so doing placed themselves in direct confrontation with despotic rulers. According to Afrobarometer’s 2024 report, whereas their research shows a drop in support for elections, the vast majority (three out of four) of Africans see elections as the best way to choose leaders.

Political watchers are keenly monitoring the conduct of governments in the lead up to parliamentary elections in Burundi and general elections in Tanzania, as will be the environment in Uganda ahead of its 2026 Presidential elections, and in South Sudan where the country’s long- delayed first elections since independence in 2011, first scheduled to be held in 2015, are now expected to be held in December 2026.

In Tanzania, apart from the crackdown on foreign activists, whom President Suluhu vowed will not be allowed to cause chaos in the country, opposition party members have for months been targeted and arbitrarily arrested and detained for planning or participating in political rallies in the run up to this year’s elections despite her lifting of the ban on political rallies in January 2023.

“Authorities have continued to prevent opposition members from holding meetings and other political gatherings, subjecting them to mass arrests, arbitrary detention and other acts of violence. In Uganda the state has intensified its crackdown on opposition politicians and dissent. As South Sudan, approaches the 2026 presidential election, preparations are taking place amidst shrinking civic and political space, characterised by arbitrary detentions of political opponents, absence of basic freedoms of movement and association, censorship of independent media, harassment of civil society actors and an upsurge of ethnic conflicts.”

“The United Nations has warned of systematic curtailment of the democratic and civic space in the country, emphasising that media freedoms and a robust civil society will be key indicators to prospects for accountable governance and a democratic society post the elections. And as the 2025 elections draw closer in Burundi, watchdogs have raised concern on continued crackdown on independent civil society and media, and called for the protection of the rights of freedom of expression and access to information for all ahead of the elections,” the report notes.

It adds: “While current conditions suggest that upcoming elections across the region may fall short of delivering the dream of democracy, what is certain is that the people of East Africa will once again rally around the electoral moment to demand a clean break from the status quo – even if the dream must be achieved at great personal cost.”