Climate experts warn of below-normal short rains between October and December
Most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa expects below-normal rainfall between the October and December season.
This was shared yesterday by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), and development partners who released the seasonal climate outlook for the last three months of the year.
The outlook noted that the strongest signal was observed in the eastern areas of the region including southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
In contrast, wetter-than-usual conditions are expected in some western areas, including south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Rwanda.
The forecast also shows a more than 70 per cent likelihood of exceeding 300 millimetres of rainfall in western Kenya, southern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
Rainfall onset is expected to be delayed in eastern areas but early to normal across western sectors.
Temperature projections suggest warmer-than-average conditions for much of the region, particularly in the east, while average to cooler-than-average conditions are forecast over
The October-November-December (OND) season is an important rainfall season for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70 per cent of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
The announcement was made during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71), which convened experts and decision-makers to review past performance and provide guidance for the upcoming season.
OND is one of the most important rainfall periods for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for up to 70 percent of annual totals in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
The projection came even as the stakeholders have called for a united approach in the climate change fight.
Speaking during the opening of the GHACOF 71, Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Forestry Deborah Mulongo emphasised the need for regional approach as climate change knows no boundaries.
“Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities,” she stated.
