Anxiety, confusion and betrayal rocks the November mini-polls

By Larry lesian

Ahead of the November 27, 2025 mini-polls that serves as a litmus test for the President William Ruto’s led UDA party under Kenya Kwanza coalition, excitement, tension and fear remains palpable amid intensified campaigns in the six constituencies and 17 wards with Baringo County which is set to elect a Senator witnessing minimal campaign activities.

The ruling party UDA recent bromance with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party under the broad-based government further complicates the political matrix throwing voters to a limbo.

Beside political party’s and candidates’ popularity alarm has been raised over politically instigated insecurity and threats targeting the opposition.

Politics of deceit and betrayal has also been at play to the chagrin of political party’s whose candidates unexpectedly make significant last minute turnaround including stepping down in favor of opponents.

Kenyans at large are also keen to see if IEBC is well prepared and committed to deliver credible elections.

“There is panic all over because the by- elections are a key testing ground for the government. It is also a reality check up of the Wantam Euphoria and political influence of the opposition. Where there is a battle between the ruling party and other political parties, a win is crucial for UDA. A loss would mean the government’s popularity has declined and it also points to the government ‘s failed strategy, ” Professor Munene Macharia, a political analyst and university lecturer of Foreign Relations and Geopolitics told The Informer Media Group.

Political unity of purpose to win respective seats has been witnessed with parties working hand in hand to emerge victorious.

According to political analyst, the by election outcome is a litmus test for president William Ruto 2027 political card but argue that he still stands a chance of re-strategising.

Some also note that the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua seems to have developed cold feet in showing his political supremacy in the by elections by failing to have his candidates’ representatives in majority of the slots.

Gachagua who have kept off campaign trails has since raised alarm over alleged planned violence being orchestrated by senior government officials.

The former DP have particularly noted that Mbeere North Constituency has been marred by government sponsored goons intimidating any dissenting voices further noting that if the trend is not contained it might erupt to fully blown violence.

He questions why the inspector General of police Douglas Kanja has failed to arrest and charge the perpetrators of the violence despite clear evidence of incitement, intimidation and remarks that threaten security of the region.

“We demand arrest and charges of those involved in escalating tension through threats. The individuals are known,” claims Gachugua who has since named some individuals allegedly involved.

Mbeere North is a three-horse race between Lenard Kariuki (UDA), Newton Karish (DP) and Daniel Mbui (CCK).

UDA managed to rally eight of its candidates to step down for Lenard Muriuki at the expense of conducting nomination.

Analysts say the outcome of the race will largely determine perception about deputy president Kithure Kindiki influence in his home turf region. Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku who had been elected as the area MP in 2022 before being appointed CS political influence will also be under the radar.

Maragini constituency is largely considered a two-horse race pitting a broad-based candidate Harrison Kombe and DCP candidate Stanley Kenga.

The duo are considered popular in the region. However, ODM brigade has carried intensified campaigns in the region to popularise Kombe as opposed to the united opposition team. Wiper Democratic Front Party candidate Samuel Nzui stepped down in favor of Kenga following its party leader Kalonzo Musyoka negotiations with Gachagua.

Kombe and Kenga battled it out for the seat in hotly contested 2022 polls. Kombe was declared winner after garnering 11,946 against Kenga’s 11,925. The 21 votes difference court battle led to the nullification of the election outcome by a Malindi court in 2023.

Kenga had in 2022 general elections vied on a UDA ticket but has since jumped ship.

“Magarini outcome will be a very powerful message about the country’s voting patterns. Now that UDA and ODM are working hand in hand to popularize Kombe as a broad-based candidate it is a very tight race. We also have other candidates representing other political parties. It will be a matter of wait and see if voters will defy political parties to elect individuals irrespective of party affiliation, ”says Joel Musumba, a political commentator.

The Malava race is also a key race pitting the ruling party and a united opposition effort.

President Ruto has taken time in his busy schedule to personally campaign for the UDA candidate David Ndakwa who set to face Seth Panyako of DAP-K who is the united opposition candidate. This follows Edgar Busiega of DCP stepping down in his favor.

A section of DAP-K members including its deputy party leader Kakamega deputy governor Ayub Savula have abandoned Panyako to support Ndakwa in what they say is aligning with the government to ensure development for the region further complicating the election matrix.

Western Kenya has not voted in the same basket in the last four general elections. However, it has largely been voting for the opposition. It is only Bungoma that Ruto won against Raila Odinga in the 2022 general elections.

The region has largely benefitted from key positions in the government including the national assembly speaker and prime cabinet positions held by Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi respectively.

Beside forestry Cabinet Secretary Deborah Baraza, the region boasts of 8 Permanent secretary positions.

In Banisa constituency, Mandera County, Ahmed Maalim is the sole candidate vying for the position. This is after the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP)led by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua candidate Adan Kiongozi stepped down in favor of Maalim.

“The Kenya democracy seems to be at stake going by what we witnessed in Banisa. After a candidate stepped down no single aspirant has shown interest in vying. That is an indicator that people already have a perception that a win for the ruling party is a must. The resource mobilisation by government machinery during campaigns is also a threat to rising voices with limited resources,” says Kioko Nderi,a political analyst.

Boyd Were who is the UDA-ODM candidate and Philip Aroko are considered the top contenders of the Kasipul Constituency seat.

This follows chaos and skirmishes that rocked ODM nominations in which Boyd the son of the late Ong’ondo Were was declared winner.

Political parties powerplay has also played out in the contest of Member of County Assembly (MCA) positions.

In Kajiado a fierce campaign of the Purko ward seat has been witnessed with UDA, DCP and ODM set to face on the ballot.

The Narok town ward seat has also been hotly contested with political partys sideshows taking center stage.