Meteorologists can be wrong? The complexity of forecasting weather and why it can sometimes be inaccurate

Weather forecasting is a huge challenge as meteorologists always attempt to predict something inherently unpredictable.

The atmosphere is a chaotic system with a small change in a particular location having a remarkable consequence over time elsewhere.

Errors develop rapidly and cause further errors on larger scales and since many assumptions are made, it becomes clear how forecast errors are easily developed (what experts call the “butterfly effect”). Hence, for a perfect forecast; every single error needs to be removed.

The science of weather forecast falls into public scrutiny every single day.

When the forecast is correct, the public, especially in Kenya, does not complain but when the forecast is wrong, they will always judge and raise queries on why the Kenya Meteorology Department misguided them.

Are we ever likely to achieve a perfect forecast that is accurate to the hour? This is the Kenyans have been asking over the past few days.

Why does Kenya Met say there will be rain and thunderstorms only to have scorching sun weather?

Why do they say there’ll be heavy rainfalls only for Kenyans to experience high temperatures without a single raindrop?

The Informer Media Group sought to get answers on why forecasting the weather is a huge challenge.

The first mundane is Phone Apps which pick data from what Kenya Met forecasts and share it with us.

The Apps tell you it will rain and there will be thunderstorms but it does not.

The more catastrophic as witnessed last year and the last couple of months in 2023 when people were warned of impending heavy rains causing deaths and injuries that could have been avoided.

Kenyans ask why is it that we live in modern times of advanced technology but why do things still go wrong?

According to climate science experts at the University of Nairobi, the current five-day forecasts are as good as the three-day forecasts that were being used over ten years ago as forecasting has improved over twenty years ago with the development of highly specialised supercomputers.

In 2023, Kenya Met and the Inter-Governmental Authority (IGAD) through its Climate Prediction and Adaptation Centre forecast indicated that there would be El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a weather event that occurs naturally and irregularly about every two to seven years; however, President William Ruto dismissed the forecast after it went weeks without rain.

Even global meteorological organizations like the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had the same predictions only that NOAA’s prediction showed that the Elnino phenomenon will extend to February 2024.

The dismissal by President William Ruto later made the Kenya Met reverse their forecast only to be proved wrong as they had to apologize to Kenyans for miscommunicating as rains pounded through the homes of many people across the country.

The El Nino rains later in 2024 went past what Kenya Met had predicted and they had to again give more information about the prolonged adverse weather conditions.

More than 250 people were left dead with scores missing to date an officer who was stationed at the Kamukunji police Station in Nairobi was swept away by the rainy waters and has never been found.

More than 40,000 households across the country were displaced as the government ordered relocation from riparian lands.

This is just an example of what happens when weather forecasting is lightly taken and warnings are not taken seriously.

Countless other scenarios have been experienced across the world; for example, in 2021 massive floods killed nearly 200 people in Germany while in 2005 Hurricane Katrina killed scores in the USA and in 2015 many Indians were affected by the heat wave.

When citizens of a country are not warned about the dangerous weather far enough, much is witnessed.

Faulty weather predictions were also witnessed last year when Kenya Met said there would be cyclone Hidaya that never came even though people on the coast were heavily prepared after receiving the warning.

Earlier, this month, for instance, Kenya Met issued a heavy rains alert saying most parts of the country were set to experience varying levels of rain between March 9 and 11 with areas such as Embakasi East predicted to witness a high of between 80mm and 100mm.

However, save for March 10 when heavy rains, which had been predicted at 20mm, pounded various parts of the country overnight, the rest of the days the experience was contrary to the alert.

Recent predictions concerning the onset of the March-April-May “Long Rains” Season have also generated sceptics.

One of those who have developed doubt is radio host and football coach Jacob “Ghost” Mulee, who this week, revealed on the Gidi na Ghost Asubuhi morning show on Radio Jambo that he now relies on BBC for more accurate forecasts.

“Kwa hiyo mambo ya utabiri wa hali ya anga, nimechukua ile ya BBC kwa sababu hawa wa rain and thunderstorms… wanasema rain and thunderstorms unajificha kwa nyumba na hakuna kitu (For the weather forecast, I have shifted to BBC because these ones of rain and thunderstorms… they say rain and thunderstorm you stay indoors and then there is nothing,” he said on Thursday.

But why this level of mistrust?

“Kenya met tells us that there will be thunderstorms and we dress warmly only to be met with the scorching sun. When they say it will rain, it does not. When they say they say it shall not rain or the rains shall be minimal we are met with the opposite,” Agnes Makena complained.

However, according to Edel kung’u, a climate scientist and a former weather forecaster at Kenya Met, Kenyans do not need to heavily judge the department as it is only a forecast.

“It is a forecast and there is always a margin of error. There is so much work that is put in place to come up with such forecasts,” she says.

She adds that progress in weather modeling may improve the statistical representations and allow the making of more realistic assumptions, and faster supercomputers to allow us to adding more detail or resolution to weather models but, at the heart of the forecast is a model that will always require some assumptions.

But according to Kenyans, it is better to have the warnings early rather than last minute after catastrophic instances where lives have already been lost.

They add that warnings about weather forecasts should be taken seriously to avoid loss of life as it was experienced last year and in 2023.