Massive task ahead in opposition’s bid to make Ruto one-term president
But while leaders in the United Opposition have held several meetings and retreats to firm up how to pick one of them to fly their flag on August 10 next year, there has been no consensus including how to establish a secretariat and the formula they will use.
Both the United Opposition and the Linda Mwananchi Movement have made sending President William Ruto home in next year’s elections their singular mission but analysts say it is likely to be a herculean task.
Opposition leaders eyeing the presidency, including Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Patriotic Front), Rigathi Gachagua (Democracy for the Citizens Party), Dr Fred Matiang’i (Jubilee Party), Martha Karua (People’s Liberation Party) and Edwin Sifuna (Linda Mwananchi Movement), have rode on public discontent over failure by President Ruto to fulfill his campaign promises to anchor their push to make him a one-term president.
Public grievances include the high cost of living and failure to create jobs for the youth and tackle corruption as well as aggressive taxation and statutory deductions that have depleted pay slips.
However, according to analysts, the opposition leaders can only unseat Ruto if they remain united and settle on a single candidate to take on him.
But while leaders in the United Opposition have held several meetings and retreats to firm up how to pick one of them to fly their flag on August 10 next year, there has been no consensus including how to establish a secretariat and the formula they will use.
During the recent retreat at Windsor Golf and Resort Club in Kiambu County, Gachagua, who heads the Democracy for Citizens Party, was conspicuously absent after opting to send his deputy Cleophas Malala to represent him.
“There is consensus that we as the opposition must forge a united front to unseat President Ruto in 2027 but we seem not to have a formula on how to arrive in picking a joint candidate without possible fallout. Our disunity could be Ruto’s blessings for a second term,” a source within the opposition said.
He was reportedly upset by failure by former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s failure to include him among contenders for State House during 24th commemoration of former Vice President Kijana Wamalwa in Kitale where he only mentioned Kalonzo and Sifuna as top choices for Kenyans.
Gachagua has also differed with his fellow principals over when it is ideal to unveil their candidate. While Kalonzo favours an early date, he insists on naming their choice close to the elections ostensibly to avoid a situation where he will be sabotaged by the State.
On the other hand, Matiang’i has insisted on the use of a scientific method (opinion poll) to pick the candidate rather than boardroom horse trading.
If they fail to agree and split the votes by separately vying for the presidency, Ruto will be home and dry in the first round of the contest.
As a result, reaching a consensus on a single presidential candidate without fracturing the coalition remains a major test for the opposition parties.
President Ruto has on several occasions dismissed the United Opposition as a loose coalition that has no vision or a concrete development agenda for the country, saying he will defeat them without a sweat.
In Linda Mwananchi, the entry of Siaya Governor James Orengo into the presidential race is set to test whether the movement will maintain its momentum and join other opposition forces to dislodge Ruto or it will be distracted by an internal contest between him and Sifuna.
Another factor that favours Ruto, according to pundits, is the power of incumbency, which gives him access to massive resources, State machinery and ability to build powerful ethnic and regional alliances.
For instance, his United Democratic Alliance (UDA)) is wooing the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faction headed by Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga with a view to inking a pre-election agreement to back his re-election bid.
Ruto has on many occasions ruled out the possibility of the opposition achieving its one-term mission, noting that if he won in 2022 when he was not the president and was ranged against the so-called Deep State after then-President Uhuru Kenyatta backed Azimio’s Raila Odinga as his preferred successor, what about now when he has the levers of power?
According to analysts, defeating an incumbent requires more than shared opposition rhetoric; it demands rigorous voter mobilisation, safeguarding the vote, and presenting clear policy alternatives.
