Kenyan private sector records first full quarter of growth, PMI survey
The Kenyan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 50.6 in December, indicating another marginal improvement in the health of the Kenyan private sector. The index dropped slightly from 50.9 in November, but was above the 50.0 neutral mark for the third month running.
The positive PMI reading was driven by three of its subcomponents, as output, new orders and employment all expanded for the third straight month. Notably, this marked the first full quarter of private sector output growth since the final quarter of 2021.
Business output generally rose due to an increase in new order intakes, according to firms monitored by the Stanbic Bank survey.
New orders grew moderately, with the upturn easing from November. Several panellists mentioned an improvement in purchasing power at customers, alongside new bookings and successful advertising campaigns.
Rising demand helped to sustain the current trend of input buying growth in December, with a rise in purchases registered for the fifth month in a row.
Furthermore, the increase was the sharpest recorded since September 2022. Stronger input demand encouraged suppliers to raise their fees, according to a number of surveyed firms. Currency weakness and heightened tax burdens were also commonly noted.
Despite a slightly lower average wage bill, the rate of overall input price inflation accelerated to its quickest for 11 months.
As a result, selling prices at Kenyan firms increased at a sharper pace in December. The latest uplift was the fastest seen in 2024. Sector data revealed that agriculture and manufacturing firms faced the strongest rates of both input and output price inflation at the end of the year. Kenyan firms reduced their backlogs of work for the second time in three months, indicating spare capacity in the private sector despite sales growth.
At the same time, optimism for higher activity in the next 12 months dropped to its second-lowest in the series history. Only 5% of surveyed firms expect output to rise, with these companies basing optimism on planned business expansion and new products and services.
With the outlook relatively weak, just the agriculture sector registered a rise in staffing in December.
Total employment growth was only fractional.
At the same time, businesses offloaded stocks to avoid wastage, leading to the first decline in inventories for five months.
Christopher Legilisho, Economist at Standard Bank commented: “The Kenyan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expanded further in December, albeit at a slightly weaker pace than November, reflecting the continued resilience of the private sector following a challenging year. Positively, this is the first quarter of expansion in output since Q4:21, suggesting that the private sector is showing signs of turning around with new orders and employment also in expansionary territory. The improvement is attributed to increased customer sales with an improvement in purchasing power. The PMI also signals healthy growth in purchasing plans in December with a drop in inventories as firms push to clear stocks in the construction and wholesale and retail sectors.
“Kenyan businesses reported increased pass-through of purchase prices, and therefore raised their selling prices in December to protect their profit margins. Rising input and purchase price pressures are attributed to a further increase in demand for commodities and higher taxes, mainly in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
“On the macroeconomic front, we end the year with relative stability, a stable exchange rate, inflation at levels last seen 17 years ago, and interest rates declining for government. On the downside, private sector confidence in the business outlook for the next 12 months is still quite weak,” he said.
