The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has singled out six counties that are likely to face electoral violence during the August 9 General Election.
Nairobi, Nakuru, Kericho, Kisumu, Uasin Gishu and Mombasa are among the cities identified in the research as likely to see electoral violence before, during, or after the elections.
“Six counties recorded an inflated vulnerability for electoral violence in the upcoming General Election.
The major impending threat being pre-existing conflicts around issues of inequalities in the distribution of resources, high population density in informal settlements and infiltration of organised criminal gangs and groups,” the report says.
NCIC performed a hotspot mapping exercise to gain a better understanding of the country’s peace and security condition in order to inform programming for electoral violence prevention ahead of the 2022 General Election.
The months running up to and after elections were among Kenya’s most violent in post-independence history.
During the 2007 elections, about 1,200 people were killed and an estimated 600,000 were displaced. Kenya’s national electoral violence index was also estimated at 53.43 percent in the report.
According to the survey, 10 counties are at a medium-high risk of electoral violence in the next elections, while 31 counties are expected to have calm elections.
Bomet, Samburu, Nandi, Meru, Isiolo, Baringo, Lamu, Laikipia, Marsabit and Narok counties are in the top ten.
The research highlights the formation and re-emergence of organised criminal gangs, particularly adolescent groups, gangs, goons and militias.
It also claims that drug and substance misuse is widespread, and that this could be a fuel for electoral violence.
It also notes that the use of hate speech, propaganda, and political rhetoric in public areas and on social media platforms is on the rise, which is a primary trigger of election violence.
Kenyans, on the other hand, have high confidence in the ability of both state and non-state actors to deal with potential crises, according to the survey.
Nairobi County is considered as the epicentre of political contestation, with considerable ramifications for other counties, according to the report.
Mradi, Utalii ward, Githurai Market, Thika Road, Mlango Kubwa, Kariobangi North-Soko stage, Kawangware-Congo, Kangemi-Maumau, Dagorreti-Kabiria, Wanyee, Hamza, Jericho, Kayole, Masimba, Soweto, Mukuru Kwa Njenga/Reuben, Choka and Dandora are the most dangerous.
Before, during and after the August elections, the NCIC produced a report that identified 23 counties as potential hotspots for violence.
Kisumu, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Mombasa, Nairobi, Migori, Kericho, Isiolo, Lamu, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Trans Nzoia, Marsabit, Kiambu, Nyamira, Homa Bay, Nandi, Bomet, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Garissa and Siaya were the regions in question.
Some of the challenges NCIC listed include ethnic balkanisation and zoning of the country by politicians, which has escalated inflammatory attacks and hate speech by prominent figures, as well as the exploitation of social media platforms to spread ethnic hate speech and incitement to violence.
Others included demonstrations/hooliganism by supporters of various political parties – with the possibility for political violence – and assurances from key coalition leaders that they will not lose elections.