Why fresh census in north eastern Kenya holds key in 2027 State House race

The nullification of the 2019 National Population and Housing Census results for Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties is likely to jolt the political landscape in the country going into the 2027 elections.

This is after High Court Judge John Onyiengo ordered the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to conduct a mini-population census in the three countries within one year.

The mini-census will be conducted in Mandera North, Mandera West, Banisa, Lafey, Mandera East, Mandera South, Eldas, Tarbaj, Wajir West, Wajir East, Wajir North, Balambala, Lagdera, Dadaab and Garissa Township sub-counties.

In the meantime, the Judge directed that the National Treasury, Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA), and Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) shall continue to apply the published census results 2009 in executing their respective mandates in respect to the affected areas or constituencies.

The case was filed by former Garissa Senator the late Yussuf Haji and Mandera Governor Ali Roba, who contested the 2019 census figures, arguing they had been suppressed for ulterior motives, disenfranchising them in terms of national resource allocation, boundary review, and creation of new constituencies.

According to the petition, Balambala’s population figure was suppressed from 94,929 to 32, 257 (a drop of 60,772), Lagdera from 92, 636 to 50, 315 (a drop of 42, 321), Lafey from 109, 856 to 83,347 ( a drop of 26,393), and Tarbaj from 111, 846 to 57, 232 ( a drop of 54, 614).

They averred that the drastic changes could not be justified since there had been no significant calamities, wars or disasters during that period.

Justice Onyiego, sitting in Garissa, agreed that the census was based on inaccurate figures, which were not verified through scrutiny.

This is especially after KNBS Director General McDonald George admitted that they did not conduct post-census evaluation due to lack of funds.

KNBS also failed to submit the devices for scrutiny by the court as directed.

In nullifying the 2019 census, Justice Onyiego noted that population is an important in resource allocation and political representation.

“Population is everything in modern Kenya where social, economic and political rights are pegged on numbers,” the Judge noted.

However, the 2009 census was itself not without controversy after its accuracy was questioned when it showed that the population of Somalis had shot to 2,385,572 effectively placing them at 6.2 per cent of the national figure at the time. This, in turn, made them the sixth largest ethnic community in Kenya.

The figure, however, sharply contrasted with those of the 1989 and 1999 censuses, which had put Somalis at around 1 per cent of the population.

The difference meant that the number of Somalis had risen by 140 per cent over the previous 10 years, which then Planning minister Wycliffe Oparanya said could only have been possible if Somali women gave birth twice a year.

Oparanya said: “The rate of increase is higher than the population dynamics.  If you look at birth and death rates, they cannot support those figures.  Age and sex profiles also deviate from the norm.”

He also pointed out that the number of men was higher than that of women by three times.

“In those areas, we were wondering how men above 35 stay without women.  In most cases, there is a balance of 50-50 or women are slightly higher.”

There was suspicion that the exercise had been infiltrated by Somali nationals who have immigrated from the war-torn neighbouring country and wanted to obtain Kenyan citizenship.

An emergency Cabinet meeting, chaired by President Mwai Kibaki and attended by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, was called to review the figures.

Oparanya then ordered a repeat exercise in  the then Lagdera, Wajir East, Mandera Central, Mandera East and Mandera West district.

However, other commentators argued that previous surveys had repeatedly underestimated Kenya’s Somali population due to their limited understanding of pastoralist social structures and restrictive definitions of who could be classified as ‘Kenyan’ that left many long-term residents of the country of Somali origin uncounted.

Local leaders also opposed the repeat order, saying 2009 census could not be compared with previous census results because it was conducted for over five days and the days gave enumerators enough time to track down pastoralists and to count them. The matter was eventually resolved by courts.

In the present case, Justice Onyiego’s order means that the KNBS has until January 28 next year to conclude the mini-census.

The exercise is likely to be closely watched by those eyeing the 2027 elections, both within government and the Opposition, as the region is likely to join the big five league in terms of population and thus a decisive voting bloc.

However, region’s new population figures may not be factors if IEBC conducts boundary delimitation before the next election due to constitutional timeframes.

In the aftermath of the 2019 census dispute, politicians allied to then president William Ruto, such as Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria, defended the lower figures claiming the 2009 ones were manipulated by Oparanya to favour Raila ahead of the 2013 presidential election.

This was after Oparanya, then the Kakamega Governor, said they will join the court case.

Even before the court annulled the 2019 census figures, some Opposition figures such as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have claimed that there is a plot by the Ruto administration to register foreigners as voters ahead of the next election.