United to oust Ruto, divided over who should face him in 2027

Personal ambitions, competing political interests and pressure from key voting blocs are threatening to derail the opposition’s efforts to field a single presidential candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

Despite the major opposition principals signing a unity pact committing themselves to a joint presidential candidate, disagreements over how and when to pick the flag bearer continue to expose cracks within the United Alternative Government.

Interviews by The Informer Media Group with sources within the coalition indicate that the selection formula has emerged as one of the biggest stumbling blocks, with principals divided between a political agreement negotiated in the boardroom and what they describe as a “scientific” process designed to identify the most popular candidate.

Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka is among those supporting a boardroom agreement, while a team led by Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Dr Fred Matiang’i is pushing for a scientific approach.

Supporters of the boardroom formula argue that negotiations among the principals would reduce the possibility of government interference or infiltration of the selection process aimed at ensuring an unpopular candidate emerges.

The Matiang’i camp, however, maintains that popularity must be objectively established if the opposition is to have a realistic chance of defeating President Ruto.

Borabu MP Patrick Osero, an ally of Matiang’i, said the opposition must look beyond candidates who merely command strong regional voting blocs.

“It is not just about picking a candidate who commands a solid regional bloc. No. We must ensure that besides getting a candidate with that bloc, we also get a candidate who meets the constitutional threshold of at least 25 per cent  vote in at least 24 counties besides garnering the 50 percent plus one of the total votes cast, only a scientific method will give us such a candidate,” Osero said.

Gachagua urges patience

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua who is also the DCP party leader has sought to downplay the urgency surrounding the selection, arguing that the opposition still has sufficient time to agree on a candidate.

Speaking to journalists at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) on Wednesday night before departing for the United States, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader cited the 2002 election, when Mwai Kibaki was chosen as the opposition’s joint candidate barely two months before the polls.

“I want to ask Kenyans to be patient. Mwai Kibaki was chosen as the single presidential candidate for the opposition on October 14, 2002, when elections were to be held on December 27 the same year. We have a whole year, what is the hurry?” Gachagua posed.

“In my view, hii ni maneno ya March, April huko. I am very happy with what is happening in Western Kenya. Wamalwa, Sifuna, Malala, they are doing a good job. After Christmas, we should be able to agree and come up with a single presidential candidate.”

Gachagua has nevertheless made it clear that he considers himself a strong contender for the ticket.

“I have said I am the most suitable, but in case my colleagues see otherwise, whoever is agreed on has my support,” he said.

Former Cabinet minister Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, who co-chairs the team tasked with selecting the opposition’s presidential candidate alongside former Cabinet colleague Kipruto Kirwa, said the emergence of Edwin Sifuna as a significant political force had complicated the process.

“We were well on course to pick the candidate but the emergence of Sifuna as a major political force and a formidable candidate has pushed us back to the drawing board,” Kituyi said.

Dispute over timing

The coalition is also divided over when the presidential candidate should be named.

One camp, led by Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi and former Azimio presidential running mate Martha Karua, wants the candidate identified immediately to allow the opposition to build momentum around the nominee.

Another group, including Kalonzo, Gachagua and Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna, believes the process should be delayed.

The differences have emerged despite the principals signing a unity agreement on Monday in Kiambu County, committing themselves to remain together, participate in a credible selection process and support whoever emerges as the coalition’s presidential nominee.

“After extensive and candidate consultations, we have unanimously agreed to execute a Personal Unity Pledge and Coalition Unity Agreement, through which each principal commits individually and collectively to remain united, participate in a credible process of selecting our presidential candidate,” the principals said.

They acknowledged that voters were looking beyond individual politicians and parties.

“We recognise that millions of Kenyans are looking beyond individual leaders and political parties. They are asking whether those seeking to provide alternative leadership dare to put aside personal ambitions, historical differences and partisan considerations in defence of the greater national interest,” the communique stated.

“Our answer today is unequivocal: Kenya comes first.”

The pact was signed by Kalonzo, Matiang’i, Karua and Muturi, while DCP Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala signed on behalf of Gachagua. Sifuna was absent from the event, with no explanation offered.

Gachagua stakes claim

The unity pact came on the same day Gachagua formally signalled his interest in securing the opposition ticket after concluding 55 days of Wamunyoro consultations.

“Kenyans have told me that they have analysed and decided that Rigathi Gachagua needs to be the preferred presidential candidate of the United Democratic Government in the 2027 General Election,” he said.

“They have instructed me to persuade my colleagues that I’m the best bet to guarantee a first-round win.”

Gachagua said his supporters believe he possesses the energy, public trust, leadership qualities, experience, political infrastructure, capacity and network required to win the election.

He nevertheless pledged not to become an obstacle to opposition unity.

“They have told me clearly that if my colleagues persuade me otherwise, that I should not be the single presidential candidate. I should not in any way be the reason why the United Democratic Government should fail to have one single presidential candidate,” he said.

“In a nutshell, they have told me that in case I am not picked as the single presidential candidate, I and my supporters must back to a man whoever is chosen to be the single candidate.”

Linda Mwananchi factor

The opposition’s unity calculations have also been complicated by the growing influence of Linda Mwananchi, whose leaders have repeatedly indicated that the movement may seek the presidency independently.

Siaya Governor James Orengo, speaking in Trans Nzoia on July 25, declared that Linda Mwananchi was capable of standing on its own and would not play second fiddle to another political formation.

“Linda Mwananchi is the biggest movement in Kenya right now. We are the major river; other movements can only come to Linda Mwananchi, not the other way round. We are not going to compromise on that. We must have a presidential candidate,” Orengo said.

Sifuna has similarly confirmed that Linda Mwananchi is seriously considering fielding its own presidential candidate after completing nationwide consultations.

“As Linda Mwananchi, we are very strongly considering the prospect of running a presidential candidate. That is clear; it is coming from the people themselves,” Sifuna said in a televised interview.

He argued that a movement demanding President Ruto’s departure must also be prepared to offer voters an alternative.

“If you are the one who runs around saying Ruto must go, you must be available to go against him. We are hoping that once we complete the tour of the country, we should be able to give you a straight answer,” he stated.