Security situation in northern Kenya complex, experts warn

The security situation in northern Kenya is once again under focus following the recent killing of close to 30 fishermen in Todonyang, Turkana North by assailants from Ethiopia.

Preliminary findings show an Ethiopian militia carried out the gruesome attacks in what appeared as retaliatory attacks on resource sharing along Lake Turkana. However, security experts are now warning against treating the incidents as identical due to the nature of the region.

Even as authorities try to piece together intelligence, it is now emerging that the incident could be isolated and should, therefore, be treated in a unique manner.

Security analyst Richard Tutah believes that a lot is being made out of the situation without proper and thorough investigations being carried out.

“What we have is two issues that are different. One is that the situation that happened in Turkana last week could be cross-border conflict or an internal issue. Whichever way one chooses to look at it, then it has to be premised on facts and historical knowledge. Up in those regions, we have a lot of free movement of people and good s without a care of so-called boundaries,” said Tutah.

“This is due to what we could call geocultural similarities that transcends walls. These people speak the same language and share the same customs so therein lies the challenge because to them the concept of boundaries is foreign,” he averred.

According to security reports, the attackers (Dassanech) who live near the Kenya-Ethiopia border opened fire randomly on a group of fishermen creating panic, injuries and loss of lives.

Interior and National Administration Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo told the media that police have intensified investigations with the view of coming clean on the exact impact on the communities living along the volatile border.

According to Tutah, nothing would directly show that intelligence failed because there was no immediate trigger.

“This issue though unfortunate just popped up and it was ll reactionary so therefore I do not believe at all it was pre-planned otherwise the locals would have picked something. Besides, those people usually have domestic conflicts which they later resolve through mediation. This is isolated and it cannot be that intelligence was left flatfooted. If there was reoccurrence then it would have escalated in my view.”

“A lot of times, folks are armed and sort their issues with these weapons. Intelligence usually comes in after the fact and not before and as such this could not have been intercepted. Nobody could have foreseen this. It is all about resources and it just went far,” he added.

On his part, security and risk expert George Musamali who has a working understanding of northern Kenya said that somebody slept on the job and therefore unnecessary blood spill was occasioned.

“This to me is certainly not isolated and for those in the know, it has happened one too many times. The area around Merule on the Ethiopian side is extremely volatile and has claimed tons of casualties in the past. Pastoralists literally roam with arms and it is a normal thing. I recall in 2004,7 General Service Unit (GSU) officers were killed purely because of intelligence failure yet we have a GSU and military camp over there, “he said.

“These attacks are often sporadic and there needs to be some intelligence reports prior. Because of resource scarcity, the Kenyan-Ethiopian border has little deployment which is risky. These elements are mostly disowned by the Ethiopian security authorities and this makes it difficult to track and trace them because they can infiltrate local communities easily. To me, the way intelligence is coordinated over that area leaves a lot to be desired,” Musamali added.

He reckons that neighbourly support would help curtail the growing insurgence of militia from whichever end.

“The countries security apparatus must find a working formula so that these issues are addressed forthwith. We all understand it is about resource fighting and so it gets really complex to that extent. However,there bneeeds to be concerted efforts to arrest any growing concerns before it balloons out of control,” Musamali said.

The risk analyst also urged for more consideration and repurposing of community policing to address criminal activities in the region.

“The aspect of popular intelligence where members of the public and security apparatus sit down and talk about their well-being is often either misunderstood or frowned upon as cosmetic. Indeed, there is huge mistrust which then compromises the purpose of the nyumba kumi initiative. We need to see communities through elders take charge and even talk to their neighbors before it is escalated upwards. There seems to be a gap that needs fixing.”

“In military economics, deployment of resources in a country like Kenya often follows the net gain by the government. This explains why there are areas with high level of vigilance as opposed to others. When you look at areas like Mt Elgon and Garissa, there is particular interest due to the value they have to the economy. This has a negative underpinning because it exposes other places to attacks,” he said.