How opposition unity could sink Ruto in 2027, new poll survey shows
President William Ruto will easily lose the 2027 presidential election if the opposition unites, a new opinion poll shows.
But a divided opposition will hand the President a narrow victory, well below the 50 per cent plus one of the total votes cast in a presidential poll for one to be declared president-elect, the opinion poll conducted by TIFA shows.
The report, released on Thursday, May 14, 2026 shows that if presidential elections were held today, president Ruto would emerge victorious with 24 per cent of the total votes cast, closely followed by Wiper Liberation Front Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka with 19 per cent of the total votes cast.
Jubilee presidential candidate Fred Matiang’i would come third with 14 per cent of the votes cast, followed by the new kid on the block , Linda Mwananchi faction’s de facto leader Edwin Sifuna who would garner 10 per cent of the votes cast.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua would emerge fifth garnering 9% of the votes, with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino finishing sixth with a paltry 2% of the votes cast.
“The 2027 presidential race remains highly fluid, with no single candidate commanding dominant national support. While president Ruto leads at 24 per cent, the findings show growing competition from other opposition figures. The data also points to a fragmented opposition landscape, with support spread across multiple leaders rather than consolidating around a single challenger,” the report states.
On president Ruto’s most preferred running mate come next year, the report shows that Deputy President Kindiki Kithure is well ahead of his closest challenger, Orange Democratic Movement party national chairman Gladys Wanga.
The report shows that 59 per cent of those sampled prefer Prof Kithure against 12 per cent who prefer the Homa Bay Governor.
The report also shows that Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga and Mining Cabinet Secretary each command a low 3 per cent while only 2 per cent of the respondents would vouch for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi as President Ruto’s running mate.
“Among opposition candidate supporters, the combination of Kalonzo and Matiang’i attracts slightly more support than that of Kalonzo and Sifuna,” the data shows.
On the ongoing rift which has split the once formidable political behemoth ODM right down the middle, the poll reveals that Sifuna, who heads the Linda Mwananchi faction commands a massive 73 per cent lead, with Dr Oginga, the party leader of the rival Linda Ground faction commanding a paltry 24 per cent support within the party rank and file.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people centered opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.
The strong backing for the Linda Mwananchi faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government to account,” notes the report.
With slightly over a year to the 2027 August poll, the report’s findings hint at very tough times ahead for both President Ruto, who has to dig deep and raise his ratings to hit the 50% plus one requirement or risk facing a united opposition in the second round.
On the other hand, the report also portends tough times for the United Opposition, which must find a formula of uniting to hand President Ruto a humbling defeat.
For several months, the United Opposition comprising Kalonzo, Rigathi and Matiang’i has been holding meetings to agree on a single candidate going to the next elections.
While the entry of Linda Mwananchi faction to their ranks has significantly boosted their support across the country, and the younger generation, going by the mammoth crowds they have been attracting in their various rallies, it has also complicated the equation, given Sifuna’s strong showing in the latest poll.
