IEBC implore media to censor opinion polls before publishing

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has implored the Fourth Estate to censor various opinion polls before publishing.

Speaking at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), IEBC Chief Executive Officer Marjan Hussein stated that the commission is committed to working with the media to ensure dissemination of accurate information to the electorate to move Kenya towards a stronger democracy.

“The Media and polling institutions have the responsibility to provide accurate information from a free, fair, and independent perspective,” he said.

Marjan emphasized that political opinion polls are essential to democracy because they assist set the stage for public discourse and decision-making. However, he issued a warning that phony polls without a scientific basis might undermine the foundation of democracy in the country, particularly during hotly contested elections, causing political instability.

“We therefore urge the media and pollsters to interrogate their news before publishing. The idea of interrogating news comprehensively can save lives and save the economy. We would therefore not spend a lot of time in nation rebuilding,” Marjan stated.

In the most recent poll, Azimio presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga and his running mate Martha Karua were the most preferred candidate in Nairobi county with a rating of 49 per cent if elections are held today, an opinion poll by Infotrak shows.

According to the poll, his closest rival, Kenya Kwanza Alliance flagbearer Deputy President William Ruto, and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua came second with a rating of 30 per cent.

The Roots party candidate George Wajackoyah and Justina Wamae received 5 per cent of the vote, while David Waihiga and Ruth Mutua of Agano received only 0.3 per cent.

Fifteen per cent of additional respondents did not express a choice for the top job.

This comes at a time pollsters have been accused of inaccurate information polls produce a wide range of results, particularly when predicting who voters would elect as president.

The usage of computer-assisted telephone interviews comes first (CATI).

A sizable research team is employed by the companies which conduct phone interviews with respondents from a call centre.

The interviews do not take place in person, companies use a database of prior interviews to select responses.

The issue here is that not all Kenyan voters have an equal probability of being contacted for an interview.

One might reply that the companies had a large enough population to take their sample from if they had received a list of mobile phone owners from the top mobile phone carriers. However, this is untrue.

Instead of representing the Kenyan population, the sample accurately reflects the characteristics of the database.

The respondents are chosen from a database, though they may be chosen at random.

However, the sample must capture the traits of the sizable population. Of course, one could contend that a database developed over a lengthy period of time is sufficient in its own right, but this isn’t always the case.

Lastly, some companies do not make their technique available for examination by other researchers. They omit to explain the achievement.

The success percentage of their survey in terms of contacting the sampled respondents is not explained.