Done deal? Talk of looming reshuffle revs up even as Raila continues with his forays

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga continued with his grassroots consultation meetings today even as talk of an impending formationalisation of a “working cooperation agreement” with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) of President William Ruto gained momentum.

Raila today met with ODM leaders in Kisii town before heading to Narok a day after he visited Wajir county where he ruled out working with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for truing to block a handshake deal between him and Ruto after the contested 2022 presidential race further strengthening the belief he is willing to side with his former boss.

“Sasa mimi ningeuliza nyinyi tufanye vipi? Tumeona jamaa ingine alikua anasema ati ameweka mtego. Si alikua ameweka mtego? Alikua anaweka mtego, kila mahali alikua ameweka mtego hakuna kitu ya kupita, hakuna mambo ya handshake, hakuna mambo ya nusu mkati. Si alisema namna hio? Sasa munataka tuende kwa jamaa mwenye mtego? Tuongee na mwenye mtego?” he posed during a town hall meeting with residents.

He added that despite Gachagua’s efforts to block his entry to State House, he still made it to a ceremony attended by regional presidents, Yoweri Museveni, Salva Kiir and Suluhu Hassan, where his AUC candidature was unveiled.

The Azimio leader has fashioned the meetings as opportunity to getting the views of the party’s members on critical affairs affecting the country as part of its 20th anniversary celebrations.

But they are also seen as exploratory tours to prepare members for a formal agreement to work with UDA, a process that kicked off on February 24 during a meeting between him and Ruto at State House Mombasa upon arrival from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia where he unsuccessfully vied to become African Union Commission chairman, a bid that had government backing.

Raila ever the master of self-reinvention after setbacks, including five attempts to gain State House tenancy, is believed to be angling for a bigger share of government in a formal deal with UDA though it is not yet clear how much ground President Ruto is prepared to cede or whether the former premier will get a role for himself in the new set up.

Already, ODM has five Cabinet Secretaries holding critical portfolios, including National Treasury and Energy, which are held by former national chairman John Mbadi and former National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi respectively.

Others serving in the so-called broad-based government are Cooperatives and SMEs Development (Wycliffe Oparanya), Mining and Blue Economy (Hassan Joho) and East African Affairs (Beatrice).

Several close allies are also serving in plum positions in the Ruto administration with the party set to further benefit from a looming reshuffle of Principal Secretaries.

The Public Service Commission has already concluded interviews for those who were shortlisted after the positions were declared vacant late last year.

The rumour mill has it that the signing of the agreement, which will open the way for reorganisation of government could happen as soon as tomorrow.

After the Mombasa meeting on February 24, ODM posted on its official X account that he will hold “further consultations with his friends and other stakeholders on the state of affairs and make a major pronouncement in the coming few days.”

On his part, Raila stated: ‘Watch this space. I’m going to make a statement next week.”

Amid the talk of a done deal, ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga  has denied the reports, adding the consultations are will enable him to get a sense of political direction after the African Union Commission loss after which he will report back to the party organs on their outcome before the pick up from there and frame the future direction.

Raila has so far visited Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay, Mombasa (twice), Wajir, Busia and Kisii for the consultations and its likely he will continue with visits to other counties.

On the other hand, UDA’s National Steering Committee, which it was said would ratify the agreement at a meeting held yesterday, never mentioned it with Secretary General Hassan Omar only indicating that it discussed a raft of issues, including ratifying the ANC Party’s decision to join it.

It is understood that President Ruto has assured Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, the initial UDA partners in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, that he has ring-fenced their positions.

There have been calls, especially from within UDA, that the position of prime minister be created for Raila to secure his support for Ruto’s re-election bid after his AUC loss, while there is no secret that the Orange Party has long coveted Wetang’ula’s job, with the recent High Court ruling that annulled his 2022 decision declaring Kenya Kwanza the majority side upping the stakes.

While ODM is expected to get more positions in government, observers will be keenly watching whether Ruto will continue pacifying the restive Mt Kenya region, where Gachagua is working hard to lock him out.

There is already talk that Agriculture minister Mutahi Kagwe, one of the beneficiaries of the Gachagua fallout, could be headed back to Afya House, in the face of the woes facing the Social Health Insurance Fund.

Kagwe was the Health minister during the Covid-19 crisis and is credited with guiding the country in minimising its impact in terms of the number of infections and deaths.