Half of Kenyans have no confidence in IEBC as majority Kenyans skeptical on Ruto-Raila deal, TIFA polls show
Another 34 per cent cited lack of trust in the IEBC, including the newly appointed commissioners and the chairperson
Almost half of Kenyans at 48 per cent have expressed lack of confidence on the newly reconstituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in delivering a free and fair elections in 2027, a new survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research shows.
The report further revealed that majority of Kenyans oppose the president William Ruto and ODM party leader Raila Odinga’s broad-based government (BBG), saying it prioritises personal interests over the public good.
The poll shows that despite efforts to present the coalition as a unifying force, skepticism remains high among citizens across the country.
According to the findings, 37 per cent of respondents believe the BBG puts leaders’ personal gain ahead of public interest.
Another 27 per cent said they reject the arrangement because it undermines democracy and weakens the role of the opposition.
A further 17 per cent argued that the government is irrelevant to people’s daily needs and development priorities.
Other reasons cited include fears that the BBG fosters corruption (8 per cent), lack of trust in the leaders involved (5 per cent), and potential human rights violations (3 per cent).
The survey, conducted between August 23 and September 3, 2025, interviewed 2,024 Kenyans by telephone in both Kiswahili and English. Respondents’ contacts had been collected earlier through face-to-face household interviews.
On the trust and confidence issues raised against the national polls body as the 2027 General Elections nears, majority of the respondents who expressed doubts about the next polls pointed to political interference, state manipulation, and corruption of the electoral process (45 per cent) as their main concern.
Another 34 per cent cited lack of trust in the IEBC, including the newly appointed commissioners and the chairperson.
The report notes that these two concerns, political interference and mistrust in the electoral body, account for the largest share of skepticism, together representing nearly four out of every five Kenyans who doubt the integrity of the 2027 elections.
Other issues raised include violence and insecurity (13 per cent), technology failures such as results transmission breakdowns (3 per cent), while 5 per cent did not state their reasons.
“Among the nearly half of all Kenyans who expressed a total lack of confidence in the integrity of the 2027 elections, most cited either political interference resulting in corruption of the electoral process, or a lack of trust in the IEBC,” TIFA stated in its report.
The survey was conducted from August 23, 2025, to September 3, 2025, using telephonic interviews conducted in Kiswahili (mainly) and English.
The 2,024 respondents’ contacts were collected through face-to-face (i.e., household-based interviews). It has a margin of error of +/-2.17%.
The survey covered nine zones, including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
