Blow to Sudi as his poll show Raila as the most preferred presidential candidate

Kapseret Member of Parliament (MP) Oscar Sudi was yesterday stunned after an opinion survey he released showed Azimio One Kenya coalition presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga as the most favoured candidate.

According to the opinion poll conducted by the legislator who is a staunch supporter of Deputy President William Ruto, 57 per cent of the 57,547 participants preferred Raila to Ruto.

At the time of publication, Ruto was lagging Odinga with 43 per cent of participants choosing him as their favourite candidate.

In a recent poll conducted one week before presidential elections showed Odinga leading Ruto by six per cent points.

According to the Ipsos poll issued early this week, 47 per cent of respondents said they would vote for former Prime Minister in next week’s presidential election.

Ruto, came in second with 41 per cent, while George Wajackoya and David Mwaure trailing in third and fourth place, respectively.

Only 9 per cent of voters were unsure.

To be considered the victor and avoid a runoff election in Kenya, a candidate must receive 50 per cent of the vote plus one.

“Should Raila convert half of the undecided voters he will win this election first round. If Dr. William Ruto converts 100 per cent of the undeclared vote, he will force a re-run,” said Samuel Muthoka, the East and Horn of Africa director at Ipsos.

Another recent poll conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) indicated Odinga to be the most favoured candidate with 46.7 per cent, while Ruto at 44.4 per cent.

According to the Ipsos poll, which was conducted between July 23 and 30, Odinga’s sweet spot is his legacy as a democratic and experienced leader, while those who support Ruto say he offers optimism and a clearer strategy for the country’s future.

As per polls, Odinga’s age and Ruto’s integrity difficulties are their primary disadvantages.

Odinga is 77 years old, while Ruto is charged with many counts of corruption.

According to Muthoka, the election will be decided by a few geographic areas, including key population concentrations in Mombasa, Nakuru Kiambu, and Bungoma counties.

“We observe that Raila Odinga has 18 counties where voter support is greater than 55 per cent for him, and William Ruto has 17 counties where voter preference is greater than 55 per cent for him,” Muthoka added.