Iranian president Raisi’s visit to Kenya manifest Nairobi’s shift from West

Kenya has had some strained relations with Iran, especially the jailing of Ahmed Mohamed and Sayed Mousavi in 2012 on charges of plotting to attack Israel and American interests in Kenya.

Their controversial release in late 2022, is a harbinger to the warming relations between the two countries summed up by the visit by Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi tomorrow.

According to Prof. David Monda, lecturer of political science and international affairs at the City University of New York, the July 11 scheduled visit by president Raisi illustrates Kenya’s effort to fix three things.

First is to advance its economic interests by accessing cheap Iranian oil in tough economic times. Second, to foster its emphasis on relations between developing nations (South-South cooperation) and third, to diversify the range and scale of Kenya’s diplomatic infrastructure away from its reliance on the US-EU or China to other regional players like Iran that also have significant regional and international influence.

Reaching out to Iran through this visit provides an alternative conduit to mitigate against risk in the international system.

The economic uncertainty due to the rising price of oil, the appreciating dollar relative to the Kenya shilling and the escalating Ukraine-Russia war, make the world a dangerous and unpredictable place.

South-South relations are central to Kenya-Iranian relations. While previous relations between the two countries might have been strained, this visit offers an opportunity to change that.

Iran is isolated by not only the US but more generally by the European Union pointing to the fact that the country needs friends.

“It for instance, needs the African vote on the UN General Assembly to vote against or abstain from votes that sanction it. Kenya provides one of these votes and regional diplomatic influence. Kenya also provides the diplomatic network Iran needs to counter some of the isolation it faces from the West. Kenya can act as a global interlocutor to connect Iran to Kenya’s Western allies that might not want to deal directly with Iran.” Monda observed.

As both Kenya and Iran are developing nations and members of the global south, this visit by the president of Iran, is a win-win for both nations.

The state visit by president Raisi also helps Kenya diversify its diplomatic infrastructure away from its reliance on the US-EU or China.

“As an anchor state in the Horn of Africa and a centre of global diplomacy via UNEP/Habitat, multinational and Civil Society Organization networks, Kenya offers Iran significant diplomatic leverage. While Iran is ostracized, isolated and labelled a state sponsor of terror by the US, these types of visits help push back against the construction of international images of Iran as a pariah state and state sponsor of terror.”

However, this visit does come with significant perils. One is antagonizing the traditionally good relations Kenya has with its allies. If Kenya is seen to be too close to Iran, it can complicate relations with the US, the EU or even Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia fear Iran uses its radical revolutionary Islamic ideology to fund and inspire global terror networks that want to topple the Saudi monarchy, bring the Muslim Brotherhood back to Egypt and attack US and EU interests in the Middle East via non-state actors like Hezbollah.

Kenya sits in between a delicate and potentially explosive relationship between Iran and its global adversaries, risking the challenge of an ambiguous and contradictory foreign policy by reaching out to Iran.

On one hand, condemning global terrorism, yet on the other, cozying up to a state like Iran that is accused of backing terrorist groups like Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon.

This not only hurts Kenya’s image abroad but also raises questions about Kenya’s commitment to fight global terror.

We live in interesting times. This presidential visit from Iran to Kenya complicates things more. But as the old adage goes, there are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations.