UDA-ODM deal: Why push for actualisation of NADCO Report points to 2027 agenda

ODM leader Raila Odinga’s handshake with President William Ruto confirms him as the foremost dealmaker in the country’s political scene often compounding both friends and foes at every turn.

When he lost the bid to become the next chairman of the African Union Commission recently, a lot of airtime and newspaper space was spent by both mainstream and social media analysts trying to dissect what role will fit him when he returns home or whether it was time for him to hang his boots.

Before embarking on his campaigns for the top Addis Ababa job, Raila had handed over the position of ODM party leader to Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o but returned to lead efforts that begun last year when he and Ruto agreed to form a so-called broad-based government in reaction to the Gen Z protests like he never left the scene. It culminated in the signing of the cooperation agreement at the KICC in Nairobi.

Though the two leaders were keen to emphasise that the MoU is not about power-sharing but aimed at improving governance and addressing the problems Kenyans are grappling with, the fact that implementation of the NADCO Report was placed top of the 10-point agenda appeared to undermine their efforts.

Apart from issues to do with electoral reforms, auditing the 2022 presidential election, tackling the cost of living and related issues, implementation of the two-thirds gender rule, governance issues including promoting national unity and inclusivity in public appointments and adequate balances, one of the key anchors of the NADCO report that so far remains unsettled is the establishment and entrenchment of State Offices.

The Committee recommended the establishment and entrenchment of the Office of the Leader of the Official Opposition in the Constitution in recognition of the value and legitimacy of opposition parties as part of the country’s political system.

In addition, it also recommended the establishment and entrenchment of an Office of the Prime Minister in the Constitution as a means of coordination of functions of the Executive arm of Government.

This brings to mind the recent debate on what role Raila should play in the Ruto administration after failing to clinch the AUC top seat for which the president and his top officials, including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, vigorously campaigned for him.

During the signing of the agreement, Raila hinted at a possible alliance in the future.

“We make it clear that the MoU is not a formation of a political coalition for ODM and UDA. The successful implementation of the agreement will see the basis of steps towards the formation of a broad-based, constitutive, and progressive formation of a stable country in the future,” he stated.

Before this deal, Raila has previously entered into similar ones beginning with Daniel arap Moi after the 1997 elections when he shocked his Opposition colleagues, Mwai Kibaki and Charity Ngilu, by entering into a cooperation agreement with Kanu at a time they were strategising to petition Moi’s win.

It saw him and Adhu Awiti appointed as Energy and Planning ministers with his National Development Party (NDP) also securing two positions of assistant minister.

In the lead up to the 2002 elections, Raila agreed to merge his NDP party with Kanu and went on dislodge long-serving Joseph Kamotho as secretary general.

Analysts say that after coming third in the 1997 election, Raila realised that with Moi set to retire, the best way to become president was working from within Kanu, which had entrenched itself in the country’s politics since independence, rather than fighting the regime from outside.

When than strategy failed after Moi sidestepped him and other veterans including Vice President Prof George Saitoti by handpicking Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor, he left a walkout from the Jogoo party that swept its senior ranks clean.

He went on to form the Liberal Democratic Party before rejoining Kibaki and Ngilu who were in the National Alliance Party of Kenya to form a mass outfit, the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).

Initially, Raila is said to have agreed to back Simeon Nyachae of the Ford People party, but at a massive rally at Uhuru Park, he declared “Kibaki Tosha” a move that saw Nyachae bolt out of Narc to launch a solo campaign.

It is believed that Raila calculated that he stood a better chance of getting power under Kibaki than Nyachae who also hailed from Nyanza. The cement his support for Kibaki, the two reached a deal to amend the Constitution within the first 100 days to create the position of Prime Minister to which he will be appointed.

After Kibaki defeated Uhuru with Raila playing a major role in his victory after he was involved in a near fatal accident in Machakos while on the campaign trail, he appointed him Roads minister.

But after Kibaki reneged on the deal during the revived constitutional review process, he led his LDP brigade in opposing the draft constitution, which they defeated at the 2005 referendum, with the support of Kanu of Uhuru and Ruto, who had become the party’s SG.

In the 2007 elections, he ran against Kibaki on the ticket of the ODM party, whose was coined using the Orange symbol that they used in the referendum.

The results of the contest, which put Kibaki at the top, were bitterly disputed resulted in post-election violence and it took international mediation to reach a truce, which saw him shake hands with Kibaki on the steps of Harambee House.

In the settlement, Raila became PM in a 50:50 grand coalition government.

After the 2017 elections, Raila boycotted a repeat election ordered by the Supreme Court, which annulled the results that had seen Uhuru re-elected, he refused to recognise him as president and instead sworn in as the “People’s President” at Uhuru Park.

His Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) sustained demands for fresh elections even after the Supreme Court had certified the results and also launched “Tear gas Monday” protests to push for the ouster of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) commissioners led by Issak Hassan.

Months later, on March 9, 2018, the country was shocked when Uhuru and Raila emerged from Harambee House to shake hands, which paved the way for his entry into the inner sanctums of power in the process dislodging Ruto, who was the deputy president, though he never held any formal title.

He and Uhuru then launched the Building Bridges Initiative, which sought constitutional changes to, among others, expand the power structure by creating the positions of prime minister and two deputies as well as that of leader of official opposition, on the argument that it will end the winner-takes-it all formula blamed for past election disputes and conflicts.

However, Ruto campaigned against it, together, with civil society groups and others, and it was eventually rejected by the Supreme Court.

But after defeating Raila, who had Uhuru’s support, and finding himself in a similar situation as the ODM leader led daily protests over the high cost of living and other grievances, he embraced the same under the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) process.

With the NADCO report having already been adopted by Parliament and various laws and Bills either enacted or in the pipeline, there is high probability that a new push for constitutional amendments will emerge from the new agreement.

It is thus likely that the deal may not bear big wins for ODM but is a precursor to a post-2027 elections alliance in which the Orange Party will either provide a running mate or occupy the PM position if it will have been created by them.

Only time will tell.