IRS poll place Ruto ahead in presidential contest at 53 per cent, Raila at 42.7 per cent
With just seven days to the August 9 General Election, a new survey by Intel Research Solutions (IRS) has found that Kenya Kwanza presidential candidate William Ruto is the most preferred candidate at 53.1 per cent followed closely by his main competitor Raila Odinga at 44.2 per cent.
George Wajakoya, presidential candidate for the Roots Party was polled at 1.4 per cent, while Wahiga Mwaure of Agano Party trailed at 0.2 per cent in the overall poll.
The updated statistics show a change in fortunes for the front-runners.
Ruto’s popularity increased from 50.5 per cent in a comparable survey taken on July 21, 2022, to 53.1 per cent , while the former prime minister’s popularity increased from 42.2 per cent to 44.2 per cent during the same time period.
This is an increase for the two front-runners for the presidency of 2.6 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively.
“We may still expect slight changes in terms of popularity of the main presidential contenders over the next seven days depending on the campaign approaches adopted by each of the political formations,” Mwangi said.
According to the poll, Odinga is doing well in the Nyanza, Nairobi, and Lower Eastern areas. His highest levels of support are in Siaya (89 per cent), Homa Bay (88.1 per cent), Kisumu (80.7 per cent), and Migori (81.5 per cent).
Ruto received 25 per cent of the vote in 43 counties, greatly exceeding the constitutionally required minimum of 24 counties.
The poll shows Odinga will receive 25 per cent of the vote in 32 counties.
Ruto is mostly liked in Elgeyo/Marakwet county (91 per cent), Kericho (89.5 per cent), Nandi (89.5 per cent), and Bomet (89.4 per cent).
The research stated that Ruto will receive the majority of support in Tharaka Nithi county (81.5 per cent), Embu (80.4 per cent), Nyeri (80.3 per cent), Nyandarua (78.2 per cent) and Murang’a (75.3 per cent).
Ruto’s frequent trips to the western region are said to have had a greater impact because the survey indicates that, if elections were held today, 47 per cent of Kenyans would endorse Raila while 48.2 per cent would vote in favour of Ruto candidacy from the same region.
According to the report, Ruto has increased his lead over Raila in the Northern Kenya region from 47 to 53 per cent over the same time period.
The results of the poll, according to IRS Chief Executive Officer Karen Mwangi, show that the presidential debate, which was only attended by Ruto, had no bearing on the poll because none of the questions were affected by it.
The results also show that the country’s overall percentage of undecided voters is 2.7 per cent, though those numbers are likely to fall before next week’s general election.
