State House compromises leave opposition exposed

President William Ruto has intensified political maneuvers pulling a last minute political masterstroke card aimed at consolidating support ahead of the upcoming November by-elections.

Impeccable sources disclosed that the Kenya Kwanza Alliance has made a deliberate decision to reach deep into opposition territories to neutralise rivals and expand its influence leaving the United Opposition, an affiliate of opposition parties exposed.

The latest win for the Ruto’s led ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) camp is Gideon Moi’s of KANU Party surprise withdrawal from the Baringo senatorial by-election on Thursday informed by what our sources termed as serious political horse trading, beaten to submission and survival retreat strategy coupled by underlying business considerations of the late President Daniel Moi family.

Political confidants close to Moi confirmed that the KANU chairman opted to step down after weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations with senior figures in Ruto’s inner circle.

The talks reportedly centered on the need to “unite the region under one leadership” and avoid unnecessary political divisions ahead of the 2027 general election.

Moi’s withdrawal effectively clears the way for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Kiprono Cheburet Chemitei to secure an easy win in the by-election, further cementing Ruto’s dominance in his political backyard.

According to KANU Secretary General George Wainaina, the party will not field a candidate in the County, leaving the field open for UDA’s candidate Chemitei and five other candidates to compete.

Reports indicated that two leaders had engaged in three previous meetings in recent times, with President Ruto appealing to Moi to bow out of the race in favour of UDA’s candidate.

However, there are fears Moi’s withdrawal might spark voter apathy and political backlash with majority of his supporters opting to shift allegiance to a rival candidate other than UDA’s Chemitei in protest.

“My dear Chairman Hon. Gideon Moi. We have had many conversations in private and I have never addressed you in public but the matter being discussed is of national importance. The choice to run or not to run for Baringo Senatorial seat is purely your personal, decision since you must have done an introspect of whether to or not despite the many voices you have listened to. Who you also choose to work with in the national politics moving forward is purely is your personal decision. My only concern and of many who have believed in you and the party is your choice not to give direction and not to communicate on time of your decisions. We feel not listened to, not heard or felt. Especially the felt part, Chairman address your supporters of your decision, lead with empathy, carry us along,” Samburu West MP Naisula Lesuda said.

Insiders within UDA say Ruto’s political strategists are keen to avoid vote-splitting in key regions where the ruling coalition seeks to make symbolic gains against the united opposition front.

Political analysts note that Ruto’s latest moves reflect an ongoing strategy to weaken the opposition’s grip ahead of the 2027 general election.

However, opposition figures have condemned the approach as “political coercion and manipulation”, accusing Kenya Kwanza of undermining democratic competition.

The by-elections in Baringo and Magarini are expected to serve as a litmus test for both coalitions, coming at a time when the political temperature is steadily rising ahead of the 2027 polls.

The move is seen as an attempt by Ruto to neutralise lingering tensions between the KANU leader and his Rift Valley base, which overwhelmingly backed Ruto in the 2022 general election.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader accused President Ruto for the unprecedented withdrawal of DCP candidate, Adan Mohamed, popularly known as Kiongozi from the Banisa constituency race after meeting President Ruto at State House.

Mohamed suddenly dropped out of the race. Speculation grew after photos surfaced online showing Mohamed at State House with Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) rival, Ahmed Barre Maalim Hassan.

Many questioned whether his meeting with the president was linked to his decision to step aside.

Speaking on Friday, October 3, 2025, Gachagua blamed the aspirant’s withdrawal on intimidation tactics from his former boss.

“We had a very strong candidate in Banisa who was going to be the next member of parliament. William Ruto summoned him, threatened him, and forced him to withdraw from the race,” Rigathi lamented.

Meanwhile, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has commenced the clearance of aspirants nominated by various political parties to contest in the upcoming by-elections scheduled for November 27, 2025.

A total of 24 electoral areas are set to hold by-elections following the declaration of vacancies earlier this year.

In Malava, Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K) candidate Seth Panyako will face off against UDA’s Peter Ndakwa and DCP’s Edgar Busiega in a tightly contested race.

James Shinachi Angatia, the Alliance for Real Change (ARC) party aspirant, was not cleared during Monday’s exercise after failing to present his retirement letter.

However, the IEBC Returning Officer granted him a reprieve, allowing him until October 9 at 4 p.m. to submit the required document.

In Kasipul, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate Boyd Were and Independent candidate Philip Aroko were cleared to run in the parliamentary by-election. United Green Movement (UGM) party’s Benson Obol is among those cleared for the Ugunja parliamentary contest.

In Mbeere North and Magarini, Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Karish and Democratic Congress Party (DCP)’s Karisa Kenga will fly the United Opposition banner.

In Purko Ward, DCP candidate Sanare Tipatet Saidimu was among the first to be cleared by the IEBC.