Will opposition unity hold as search for single candidate to face Ruto gathers steam?

The clock is ticking fast for the United Opposition, which also styles itself as the alternative government, to reach consensus on who would fly its flag in the August 10 2027 presidential contest even as fears persist that ideological, ethnic and personality cracks could undermine the process thus giving President William Ruto the head start as he seeks to extend his tenancy at State House for another five-year term.

While Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka had announced in December that they will decide on who among them will take on Ruto in their push to make him a one-term president by the end of March, his Democracy for Citizens Party counterpart Rigathi Gachagua was of the view that naming their candidate early could allow him to use the power of incumbency to derail their campaign and instead expressed his preference that they make their choice with a few months left to the General Election.

However, there are indications that the Opposition flagbearer could be named soon with just over 400 days left to D-Day especially given the anxiety that is building up among supporters of the various contenders.

Apart from Kalonzo and Gachagua, others billed as potential flagbearers include Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Dr Fred Matiang’i, National Liberation Party’s Martha Karua, former Chief Justice David Maraga and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who leads the renegade Linda Mwananchi faction.

Pundits aver that failure to reach consensus could split the Opposition just as it happened in 1992 when the popular Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford) splintered into Ford Kenya led by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Ford Asili of Kenneth Matiba, a development that allowed President Daniel Moi to sneak through with a simple majority vote.

While Ruto faces a harder task than Moi following constitutional changes introduced in 2010, which require the winner of the presidential vote to amass at least 50 per cent + 1 of the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 of the 47 counties, if more than one strong candidates runs for the top seat it could offer him the chance to secure a similarly narrow win or force a second round with the possibility that he could secure the support of the other candidates or at least one of the strong ones and effectively kill the one-term campaign.

Gachagua, who was impeached a deputy president in 2024, is presently out of the running after the High Court rejected his bid to declare his removal unconstitutional though he has not entirely buried his ambitions in the hope the Court of Appeal will rule in his favour.

However, speaking after the June 8, 2026 ruling, he declared his support for a single presidential candidate as per the aspirations of the united opposition, saying that is what a caucus of advisers, professionals, clergy and political allies that convened after the verdict had recommended.

“They have instructed me that having a single presidential candidate against William Ruto is not negotiable,” he said.

Gachagua is the framer of the one-term campaign to dethrone Ruto, whom he accuses of betraying the Mt Kenya voters, who gave him more than three million votes enabling him to defeat his closest rival, Raila Odinga, by about 200,000 votes, by plotting his dismissal and focusing on Opposition strongholds after forming a broad-based government with Raila’s ODM.

He has spent his time since his removal working to consolidate support in his backyard with a promise he will give them direction on who to back next year.

So far, Gachagua, who is currently on a 45-day retreat at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri consulting and meditating on who he will back for the top seat, has shown preference for Kalonzo though his rapprochement with former President Uhuru Kenyatta has increased chances that he could back Matiang’i, either as the flagbearer or running mate in the event that he fails to secure a favourable ruling at the Court of Appeal or the process drags on.

“I want to confirm that if I am not the flag bearer, I and my supporters will support another Kenyan. I will persuade all my supporters, including former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is my supporter, that all of us from our support base will put our vote in one basket in favour of the agreed presidential candidate,” he said on June 9.

There are also suggestions that he could back a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket, a development that could see Matiang’i look elsewhere if he decides to part ways with the united opposition with some hinting at former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya as a potential running mate.

On Wednesday, his close ally, Embakasi North MP Peter Gakuya, spoke favourably of the Nairobi senator, describing him as an asset to the united opposition during a TV interview while dismissing those who say his rebellion in ODM, which is plotting to back Ruto’s re-election bid, could complicate the search for opposition unity.

If Matiang’i, who has been rooting for a scientific method of picking the candidate rather than the “tyranny of numbers” that is preferred by Gachagua, is disaffected by the process and bolts out, there are some who say he could link up with Karua and Maraga amid indications the Linda Mwananchi group could back the former CJ.

Last Monday, Maraga held a meeting at Ufunfamano House in Nairobi to deliver his State of the Nation address after a caravan listening tour of 43 counties, which was attended by Karua and Linda Mwananchi’s Caleb Amisi, Caroli Omondi and Wilberforce Otundo and gospel singer Reuben Kagame.

During the meeting, Amisi said Linda Mwananchi will only agree to a Maraga-Sifuna ticket.

“If Sifuna is not going to be a presidential candidate, the only person I will allow Sifuna to deputise is Maraga,” he said.