Why opposition can opt for unity or gamble in 2027

The opposition’s greatest obstacle to defeating President William Ruto in 2027 may not be the president’s popularity, but its own inability to convert political discontent into a winning national coalition, political analysts now contend.

The growing mistrust in the United Opposition has generated concerns their joint strategy to field a single candidate against President William Ruto next year may unravel with less than 10 months left to the much-anticipated contest.

After months of claims by Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua that the government has sponsored moles to infiltrate the United Opposition, the party’s Secretary General Designate John Methu sensationally claimed that the loyalty of Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Jubilee Party leader Dr Fred Matiang’i cannot be trusted.

Speaking during a TV interview on Monday, he alleged that immediately after DCP won the Ol-Kalou by-election, he was approached by a government operative who sought to have him launch his own party to compete with Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region, adding that he was offered money and promised that his outfit will be financed to field candidates in next year’s General Election.

Similar offers were offered to Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata, according to the Nyandarua senator, adding that he also approached Gachagua and Nyoro to tell them about the overtures and that the MP told him not to fall into Ruto’s trap.

“When I heard him say he has a party, I couldn’t believe my ears because it is he who told me that another party is a creation of William Ruto. This same offer of forming a party others were given. If I was to name moles, then I think the name Ndindi Nyoro will feature prominently,” Methu stated.

And on Matiang’i, who has crossed ranks with Nyoro since the latter joined the United Opposition including holding a joint rally in Narok, Nakuru and Kajiado, Methu also cast aspersions on his commitment to fielding a joint candidate.

“I cannot speak about Matiang’i because I thought I knew him very well. These days, I don’t think I know him. If I say Ndindi Nyoro is a mole, what can I say about Matiang’i, and they are friends?” he said.

However, both Matiang’i and Nyoro have previously denied secretly working with Ruto to destablise the opposition.

According to Matiang’i, such claims are meant to divert attention from critical issues.

And after the latest claims, Nyoro denied meeting with Methu after the Ol Kalou by-election as alleged.

“We have not met to discuss such as thing. It is just nonsense and hogwash. It is juvenile to say the least,” he told a local daily as he accused Gachagua to fueling a smear campaign against him.

During the Kajiado rally on Tuesday, Nyoro accused Methu of being insincere, claiming Ruto helped him build his own house.

“I am telling them if you speak with Ruto, let it end there. The one accusing others of being moles, even his own house was built by Ruto,” he said.

While Methu has not provided evidence that Nyoro is a government project, political analysts say it is likely they are part of a DCP strategy to undermine Nyoro’s strength in the Mt Kenya region after the formation of his People’s Party of Kenya upset its quest to have an upper hand in the 2027 elections.

“Remember that until Nyoro formed his party, Matiang’i was already a problem to Gachagua because of the support he had from Jubilee Party leader Uhuru Kenyatta, which threatened his influence in Mt Kenya,” political analyst Dr Wanguhu Gitonga says.

He adds that with Uhuru exiting Jubilee Party and the elevation of Matiang’I to party leader, there has been a change of strategy due to fears he may pick Nyoro as running mate and upset its best laid plans.

Gachagua has been promoting DCP as the region’s vehicle with a view to securing majority seats and solidify his position if the opposition wins the presidential contest.

However, if the opposition splits, it is likely to give an advantage to President Ruto as he works to mobile voter registration in his backyards.

According to Gitonga, since the 2002 election, there is no candidate who has won State House without the support of Mt Kenya whose registered voters are projected to increase to seven million by the next election.

A contest between various formations and its effect on voting patterns in other regions will work in Ruto’s favour having won the last election by 200,000 votes.

At the moment, Methu is comfortable with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Linda Mwanachi leader Edwin Sifuna, which points to the direction DCP and Gachagua could take.

However, Sifuna has rebuffed calls to join the Ukombozi Alliance, the successor of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party on whose ticket Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, the late Raila Odinga vied for the presidency in 2022, saying their mission is to strengthen the recently launched The Equitable Party, which will be rebranded into the Linda Mwananchi Movement if they secure registration, by establishing structures and meeting Registrar of Political Parties deadlines before they could think about coalition building.

On the other hand, DCP and Jubilee Party are also reluctant to join Ukombozi Alliance despite assurances by Uhuru that despite Ruto being party leader, he is not the automatic presidential candidate as Azimio’s Deed of Agreement has been amended to open the door for other bids.

Political pundits, however, warn that the opposition leaders have no option but to live together or they will die alone.

For instance, if Matiang’i goes it alone, he is likely to sweep the Gusii region and its Diaspora in counties such as Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Narok and Kajiado as Ford People’s Simeon Nyachae did in 2002 denying the United Opposition over one million votes, which will work to Ruto’s advantage in a close contest.