Matiang’i offers breath of fresh air but will Kalonzo sacrifice his ambitions yet again?

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i’s entry into the political scene has shaken up the race for the 2027 presidential election as the opposition strategises to make President William Ruto a one-term president.

After recently taking leave from the World Bank, Matiang’i was received by mammoth crowds on his return to the Gusii region, where he confirmed his presidential ambitions.

Talk of Matiang’i’s ambition to replace Ruto began last year when it emerged that he had inked a consultancy agreement with Canadian lobbying firm Dickens & Madson to seek international support after paying a down-payment of US$65,000 (Ksh 8.4 million) with a commitment to pay another US$250,000 (Ksh 32.3million).

Prior to his return to Kenya from Washington DC in the United States, Jeremiah Kioni, the Secretary General of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party numerously declared that the outfit had settled on the former CS as its candidate in 2027.

In the last election in 2022, Uhuru and his Jubilee Party were part of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party, a conglomeration of parties that fielded ODM leader Raila Odinga as its candidate against Ruto. He was, however, narrowly defeated in a disputed outcome though the Supreme Court upheld Ruto’s victory.

After the Gez Z protests that shook Ruto’s administration to the core, he incorporated ODM’s allies into Cabinet and has since appointed others to senior positions after signing a working agreement forcing Raila’s pre-2022 allies back to the drawing board.

The result has been a series of meeting culminating in the one held early this week when Matiang’i joined Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, People’s Liberation Party Leader Martha Karua and DAP-Kenya Leader Eugene Wamalwa for consultations in Nairobi.

Other leaders who attended the Tuesday meeting included former Cabinet Secretaries Mithika Linturi and Justin Muturi and former Cabinet minister Mukhisa Kituyi, among others.

Of these, Kalonzo, Gachagua, Karua and Wamalwa have so far declared interest in gaining tenancy of the House on the Hill come 2027.

Gachagua, who has challenged his impeachment last October in court, declares that nothing stops him from vying.

“I am vying for (the) presidency, so is Martha Karua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa and we continue to look for votes. In the end, we shall talk and agree to back one candidate. Even if it is not me, I will support whoever we agree on,” Gachagua stated.

“I was not impeached by the people. I was impeached by MPs who did not elect me. Impeached or not, I am still a leader and that is why people listen to me everywhere I go. I am in the politics of saving Kenya,”he added.

He is expected to launch his political party this month.

As the Opposition unites against Ruto, political pundits will be keenly watching which way the Mt Kenya region will take and whether Kalonzo will be willing to play second fiddle or as a supporting cast for the fourth time.

Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate in 2013 and 2017 and also backed him in 2022 with Karua as running mate. He has previously vowed that he will pave the way for nobody in the 2027 race and at 71 years, time may be running out for him to realise his presidential ambitions.

What would, however, remain key is how regional dynamics will play out especially given the importance of vote strengths in any coalition making.

Gachagua has previously termed politics as a game of mathematics.

“Hesabu ya siasa ni addition, not subtraction; let’s unite and join other Kenyans as one group,” he said during a tour of the Ukambani region while urging for GEMA unity.

Gachagua says the Mt Kenya region gave Ruto 3.5 million votes of his 7.1 million he garnered in 2022.

He has previously challenged the Kamba increase their tally to five million votes to stand a chance of getting support from their Mt Kenya counterparts, whose tally is he said will top 10 million votes in 2027.

In Kenyan presidential politics, one’s strongholds and war chest play a big role, which brings into question whether Matiang’i, despite his impressive public service record, will realise his State House dream, especially given that he comes from a community that is likely to boast of just over one million votes in 2027.

Lawyer Suyinka Lempaa is, however, confident that the former University of Nairobi English lecturer will succeed given his achievements in the ICT, Education, Lands and Interior ministries under Uhuru.

He also served as chairman of the National Development Implementation and Communication Cabinet Committee.

He is credited with overseeing digital migration in the media sector, education reforms including a curb on national examinations cheating; an end to corruption in the issuance of birth certificates, national identity cards and passports; and a multi-agency approach that drastically reduced terror attacks in the country.

“He is credited with many achievements but I think the most important was ensuring everyone gets an education. Education is an equaliser. I think anyone who supports education is a good leader,” Lempaa said.

According to Lempaa, also a journalist, what also favours Matiang’i is that he offers a breath of fresh air given that he does not come from the Big Five communities.

“That is the sentiment I am getting from Kenyans. It is time to give someone else a chance.”