Ruto’s popularity declines by 1 per cent, Raila’s increases by 5 per cent in new TIFA poll

Deputy President William Ruto’s popularity slightly declined by 1 per cent since the last TIFA poll done in February, while Raila Odinga’s increased by 5 per cent.

However, Ruto continues to maintain lead at 39 per cent as the most preferred presidential candidate ahead of competitor Raila who is at 32 per cent.

The survey released today indicated support for Ruto remains statistically unchanged since TIFA’s last survey in February.

“Though this near-static overall figure obscures some changes in several zones,” said TIFA.

TIFA’s Research Analyst Tom Wolf explained that Raila’s overall 5 per cent gain was mainly contributed by the Lower Eastern region where he had 24 per cent.

“We will conduct another poll after naming of running mates, so as to evaluate if the situation remains the same,” he stated.

Raila has gained the most in Lower Eastern 24 per cent as well as in Nyanza 8 per cent. The former Prime Minister has also seen an increase in support in Coast, Northern, and Western 6 per cent in each.

In terms of support from their native zones, Ruto enjoys 70 per cent in Central Rift 70 per cent while Raila has 56 per cent in Nyanza County.

“Notwithstanding the fact that some 47 people have declared that they will seek the presidency, nearly all Kenyans who have made up their minds say that they intend to vote for either DP William Ruto 39 per cent or former PM Raila Odinga 32 per cent,” said TIFA.

The poll also noted that more Kenyans expressed support for Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance 36 per cent than for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance 33 per cent.

It added that the Kenya Kwanza Alliance led by Ruto dominated the Central Rift and in Nyanza where Azimio does likewise.

“While nearly all ODM supporters also support the Azimio coalition 94 per cent, only about three-quarters of UDA supporters support Kenya Kwanza 79 per cent.

“Only UDA and ODM can claim a substantial level of nationwide support. Support for the two next most popular parties Jubilee and Wiper is quite concentrated in particular regions (Mt. Kenya and Lower Eastern, respectively), with the same applying to ANC,” the TIFA research added.

The survey noted that a large number of Kenyans are still undecided on their preferred presidential candidate at 16 per cent, with other 12 per cent unwilling to respond to the questions in the survey.

The survey also revealed that most of Ruto’s supporters are young Kenyans aged between 18-35, while Raila enjoys support from old Kenyans.

“This finding begs the question is it because Raila himself is older and therefore, older people have known him for long and what he is been through, or because the young generation is attracted to Ruto because of his age?” posed Wolf.

The survey which was conducted in 9 regions also showed that Raila is still popular in Nyanza, Lower Eastern and Nairobi, while Ruto is popular in Rift Valley followed by Mt. Kenya.

The survey was conducted between April 22 and 26, 2022, and was through telephone interviews in both Kiswahili and English languages.