The Kenya Medical Research Institute(KEMRI) has predicted that the fourth wave of Covid-19 is expected mid-July.
In the modelling by the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust, the Institute says Nairobi and the Coastal region will be worst hit by the fourth wave.
“The start of a fourth wave is imminent in the coastal region and Nairobi County and is already causing a surge in cases in Nyanza, Western region counties,” stated the research.
The surge is attributed to the Delta variant first discovered in India, which has been found to be 60 per cent more transmissible than Alpha variant and bound to present more severe symptoms.
The Institute noted that genomic sequencing carried out to ascertain the spread of the Indian variant showed that it was slowly gaining dominance over the first variant.
The Health Ministry has warned that that the Delta variant could overwhelm the healthcare system if Kenyans will not adhere to containment measures.
Simulation to determine the possible outcomes of the modelling showed that within six months 4300 additional hospital admissions and 580 deaths are anticipated.
So far, 376 people have tested positive to Covid-19 from a sample size of 3,831 tested in the last 24 hours bringing total confirmed positive cases to 184,537.
The positivity rate is now at 9.8 per cent while the cumulative tests so far conducted are 1,963,532.
Out of the new cases 363 are Kenyans while 13 are foreigners.
There are 230 males and 146 females with the youngest being an eleven-month-old baby while the oldest is 91 years.
However, six patients have succumbed to the disease, all of them being late deaths reported after conducting facility record audits on diverse dates in the months of April and June 2021 pushing the cumulative fatalities now to 3,640.
910 patients have recovered from the disease, 516 from the Home Based and Isolation Care program while 394 are from various health facilities countrywide.
Total recoveries now stand at 126,594 out of whom 91,514 are from Home Based Care and Isolation program, while 35,080 are from various health facilities.
A total of 1,127 patients are currently admitted in various health facilities countrywide, while 5,722 patients are under Home Based Isolation and Care program.
130 patients are in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 39 of whom are on ventilatory support and 53 on supplemental oxygen and 38 under observation.
Another 168 patients are separately on supplemental oxygen with 153 of them in general wards and 15 in High Dependency Units (HDU).